Models
AEGIS VOPAK TERMINALS LTDAEGISVOPAKOil
₹105per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹105implied FY26 P/E 46.5× · EV/EBITDA 19.7×
Against CMP ₹295.00−64.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3192%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹73₹171
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹158₹311
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,133 |
| PV of terminal value | 12,365 |
| Enterprise value | 13,499 |
| less net debt | (1,815) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,684 |
| ÷ 110.80 crore shares | ₹105 |
92% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 110 | 121 | 134 | 151 | 171 |
| 10.50% | 98 | 108 | 119 | 132 | 148 |
| 11.00% | 89 | 96 | 105 | 116 | 129 |
| 11.50% | 80 | 87 | 94 | 103 | 114 |
| 12.00% | 73 | 78 | 85 | 92 | 101 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹295.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 68 · 104 · 154 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 621 | 923 | 1,200 | 1,560 | 2,028 | 2,636 | 3,427 |
| growth % | — | 48.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 458 | 686 | 893 | 1,161 | 1,509 | 1,961 | 2,550 |
| margin % | 73.7 | 74.4 | 74.4 | 74.4 | 74.4 | 74.4 | 74.4 |
| less depreciation | (126) | (208) | (270) | (351) | (456) | (593) | (771) |
| EBIT | 331 | 479 | 623 | 810 | 1,053 | 1,368 | 1,779 |
| less tax on EBIT | (76) | (99) | (129) | (167) | (218) | (283) | |
| NOPAT | 403 | 524 | 681 | 885 | 1,151 | 1,496 | |
| add depreciation | 126 | 208 | 270 | 351 | 456 | 593 | 771 |
| less capex | (128) | (700) | (910) | (992) | (1,042) | (1,033) | (925) |
| less working-capital build | — | (53) | (69) | (89) | (116) | (151) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 350 | — | (169) | (29) | 210 | 594 | 1,191 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (160) | (25) | 162 | 412 | 744 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,118, dividends at 60% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 479 | 623 | 810 | 1,053 | 1,368 | 1,779 |
| Interest at 4.8% on debt | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | |
| Profit before tax | 521 | 708 | 951 | 1,267 | 1,677 | |
| Profit after tax | 310 | 438 | 595 | 800 | 1,065 | 1,410 |
| Dividends | (186) | (263) | (357) | (480) | (639) | (846) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 302 | (215) | (687) | (1,042) | (1,173) | (914) |
| Working capital | 176 | 229 | 298 | 387 | 504 | 655 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,972 | 8,611 | 9,252 | 9,838 | 10,279 | 10,433 |
| Debt | 2,118 | 2,118 | 2,118 | 2,118 | 2,118 | 2,118 |
| Equity | 4,419 | 4,594 | 4,832 | 5,152 | 5,578 | 6,142 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 655 | 878 | 1,167 | 1,542 | 2,031 | |
| Investing (capex) | (910) | (992) | (1,042) | (1,033) | (925) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (263) | (357) | (480) | (639) | (846) | |
| Net change in cash | (517) | (472) | (356) | (130) | 259 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (254) | (114) | 124 | 509 | 1,105 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 74.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹105 | (64.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.