Models
Afcom Holdings LimitedBSE 544224Transport Services
₹1,852per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,852implied FY26 P/E 26.6× · EV/EBITDA 22.0×
Against CMP ₹1,546.00+19.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,425₹2,706
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹638₹1,711
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,133 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,000 |
| Enterprise value | 5,133 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,133 |
| ÷ 2.77 crore shares | ₹1,852 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,914 | 2,058 | 2,231 | 2,442 | 2,706 |
| 10.50% | 1,764 | 1,883 | 2,024 | 2,194 | 2,401 |
| 11.00% | 1,634 | 1,735 | 1,852 | 1,991 | 2,158 |
| 11.50% | 1,523 | 1,608 | 1,707 | 1,822 | 1,959 |
| 12.00% | 1,425 | 1,498 | 1,583 | 1,680 | 1,793 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,546.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,368 · 1,831 · 2,455 |
| Draws below the CMP | 23% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 148 | 239 | 583 | 758 | 985 | 1,281 | 1,665 | 2,165 |
| growth % | — | 61.8 | 144.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | — | 234 | 303 | 394 | 512 | 666 | 866 |
| margin % | — | — | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| less depreciation | — | — | (53) | (69) | (90) | (117) | (152) | (197) |
| EBIT | — | — | 180 | 234 | 305 | 396 | 515 | 669 |
| less tax on EBIT | (37) | (48) | (62) | (81) | (105) | (136) | ||
| NOPAT | 143 | 186 | 242 | 315 | 410 | 533 | ||
| add depreciation | — | — | 53 | 69 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 197 |
| less capex | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | (27) | (70) | (136) | (236) |
| less working-capital build | — | (38) | (49) | (64) | (83) | (108) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 27 | — | 218 | 256 | 298 | 342 | 385 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 207 | 219 | 229 | 237 | 241 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 62, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 180 | 234 | 305 | 396 | 515 | 669 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 229 | 300 | 391 | 510 | 664 | |
| Profit after tax | 122 | 182 | 238 | 311 | 406 | 529 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 62 | 276 | 528 | 822 | 1,160 | 1,541 |
| Working capital | 126 | 164 | 213 | 276 | 360 | 467 |
| Net block and other assets | 747 | 678 | 615 | 569 | 553 | 593 |
| Debt | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Equity | 457 | 639 | 878 | 1,189 | 1,594 | 2,123 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 214 | 279 | 364 | 474 | 618 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (27) | (70) | (136) | (236) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 214 | 252 | 294 | 338 | 381 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 214 | 252 | 294 | 338 | 381 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 40% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,852 | 19.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.