Models
AFFLE 3I LIMITEDAFFLEIT - Services
₹911per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹911implied FY26 P/E 26.8× · EV/EBITDA 19.0×
Against CMP ₹1,572.00−42.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies35.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹714₹1,304
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,251₹2,186
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,255 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,360 |
| Enterprise value | 11,615 |
| less net debt | 1,196 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 12,811 |
| ÷ 14.06 crore shares | ₹911 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 939 | 1,006 | 1,085 | 1,182 | 1,304 |
| 10.50% | 870 | 925 | 990 | 1,068 | 1,164 |
| 11.00% | 811 | 857 | 911 | 975 | 1,052 |
| 11.50% | 759 | 799 | 844 | 897 | 960 |
| 12.00% | 714 | 748 | 787 | 832 | 884 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,572.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 716 · 906 · 1,144 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.48 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,434 | 1,843 | 2,266 | 2,709 | 3,238 | 3,869 | 4,623 | 5,525 | 6,602 |
| growth % | 32.6 | 28.5 | 23.0 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 289 | 360 | 483 | 610 | 728 | 871 | 1,040 | 1,243 | 1,486 |
| margin % | 20.1 | 19.5 | 21.3 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| less depreciation | (49) | (72) | (97) | (124) | (149) | (178) | (213) | (254) | (304) |
| EBIT | 239 | 288 | 386 | 486 | 580 | 693 | 828 | 989 | 1,182 |
| less tax on EBIT | (90) | (108) | (129) | (154) | (184) | (220) | |||
| NOPAT | 395 | 472 | 564 | 674 | 805 | 962 | |||
| add depreciation | 49 | 72 | 97 | 124 | 149 | 178 | 213 | 254 | 304 |
| less capex | (92) | (116) | (160) | (211) | (253) | (280) | (308) | (336) | (364) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 168 | 147 | 266 | — | 368 | 462 | 578 | 723 | 901 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 349 | 395 | 446 | 502 | 564 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 12, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 486 | 580 | 693 | 828 | 989 | 1,182 |
| Interest at 11.8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 578 | 691 | 826 | 988 | 1,180 | |
| Profit after tax | 455 | 471 | 563 | 673 | 804 | 961 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,207 | 1,574 | 2,035 | 2,613 | 3,334 | 4,234 |
| Working capital | (208) | (208) | (208) | (208) | (208) | (208) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,422 | 3,525 | 3,627 | 3,722 | 3,805 | 3,866 |
| Debt | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Equity | 3,652 | 4,123 | 4,685 | 5,358 | 6,162 | 7,123 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 620 | 741 | 885 | 1,058 | 1,265 | |
| Investing (capex) | (253) | (280) | (308) | (336) | (364) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 367 | 461 | 577 | 722 | 900 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 367 | 461 | 577 | 722 | 900 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 22.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹911 | (42.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.