Models
AGARWAL INDS CORP LTD.AGARINDChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹93per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹93implied FY26 P/E 3.4× · EV/EBITDA 3.7×
Against CMP ₹434.50−78.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹245
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹360₹1,006
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 44 |
| PV of terminal value | 387 |
| Enterprise value | 432 |
| less net debt | (293) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 139 |
| ÷ 1.50 crore shares | ₹93 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 103 | 129 | 160 | 198 | 245 |
| 10.50% | 76 | 98 | 123 | 154 | 191 |
| 11.00% | 54 | 72 | 93 | 117 | 147 |
| 11.50% | 34 | 49 | 67 | 87 | 112 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 30 | 45 | 62 | 82 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹434.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 16 · 94 · 180 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,015 | 2,125 | 2,399 | 1,652 | 1,570 | 1,491 | 1,417 | 1,346 | 1,278 |
| growth % | 26.1 | 5.5 | 12.9 | (31.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 136 | 173 | 202 | 117 | 111 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (30) | (48) | (52) | (49) | (46) | (44) | (42) | (40) |
| EBIT | 113 | 143 | 154 | 65 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 51 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 30 | 48 | 52 | 49 | 46 | 44 | 42 | 40 |
| less capex | (149) | (270) | (165) | (121) | (116) | (97) | (79) | (62) | (48) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | (158) | (65) | — | (12) | 2 | 15 | 27 | 37 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (11) | 2 | 12 | 19 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 336, dividends at 11.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 65 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| Profit before tax | 39 | 35 | 32 | 30 | 27 | |
| Profit after tax | 44 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 23 | 21 |
| Dividends | (5) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 43 | 9 | (11) | (18) | (13) | 3 |
| Working capital | 121 | 115 | 110 | 104 | 99 | 94 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,037 | 1,105 | 1,155 | 1,190 | 1,211 | 1,219 |
| Debt | 336 | 336 | 336 | 336 | 336 | 336 |
| Equity | 689 | 716 | 741 | 763 | 784 | 803 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 85 | 80 | 75 | 70 | 66 | |
| Investing (capex) | (116) | (97) | (79) | (62) | (48) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | (34) | (20) | (7) | 5 | 16 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (31) | (17) | (4) | 8 | 18 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 7.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹93 | (78.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.