Models
AGI GREENPAC LIMITEDAGIIndustrial Products
₹594per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹594implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹764.00−22.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹441₹899
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹465₹939
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 659 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,344 |
| Enterprise value | 4,003 |
| less net debt | (161) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,842 |
| ÷ 6.47 crore shares | ₹594 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 615 | 667 | 729 | 804 | 899 |
| 10.50% | 562 | 605 | 655 | 716 | 790 |
| 11.00% | 516 | 552 | 594 | 644 | 703 |
| 11.50% | 476 | 507 | 542 | 583 | 632 |
| 12.00% | 441 | 468 | 498 | 533 | 573 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹764.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 451 · 589 · 749 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,529 | 2,665 | 2,812 | 2,967 | 3,130 | 3,302 | 3,483 |
| growth % | — | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 614 | 590 | 621 | 656 | 692 | 730 | 770 |
| margin % | 24.3 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 |
| less depreciation | (177) | (171) | (180) | (190) | (200) | (211) | (223) |
| EBIT | 437 | 419 | 441 | 466 | 491 | 518 | 547 |
| less tax on EBIT | (103) | (108) | (114) | (120) | (127) | (134) | |
| NOPAT | 316 | 333 | 352 | 371 | 391 | 413 | |
| add depreciation | 177 | 171 | 180 | 190 | 200 | 211 | 223 |
| less capex | 0 | (397) | (419) | (388) | (353) | (313) | (268) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (39) | (42) | (44) | (46) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 429 | — | 57 | 114 | 176 | 246 | 322 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 54 | 97 | 136 | 170 | 201 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 239, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 419 | 441 | 466 | 491 | 518 | 547 |
| Interest at 12.1% on debt | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | |
| Profit before tax | 413 | 437 | 462 | 489 | 518 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 311 | 330 | 349 | 370 | 391 |
| Dividends | (45) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 78 | 113 | 204 | 359 | 583 | 883 |
| Working capital | 679 | 716 | 756 | 798 | 841 | 888 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,796 | 3,035 | 3,233 | 3,386 | 3,488 | 3,533 |
| Debt | 239 | 239 | 239 | 239 | 239 | 239 |
| Equity | 2,407 | 2,719 | 3,049 | 3,398 | 3,767 | 4,158 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 454 | 480 | 508 | 537 | 568 | |
| Investing (capex) | (419) | (388) | (353) | (313) | (268) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 92 | 155 | 224 | 300 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 35 | 92 | 155 | 224 | 300 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 22.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹594 | (22.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.