Models
AGI INFRA LIMITEDAGIILRealty
₹14per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹14implied FY26 P/E 0.9× · EV/EBITDA 2.2×
Against CMP ₹273.85−94.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹10₹23
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹225₹434
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 78 |
| PV of terminal value | 195 |
| Enterprise value | 273 |
| less net debt | (96) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 177 |
| ÷ 12.50 crore shares | ₹14 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 15 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 23 |
| 10.50% | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| 11.00% | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| 11.50% | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 12.00% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹273.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (25) · 14 · 47 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.83 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 241 | 292 | 325 | 353 | 383 | 415 | 450 | 489 | 530 |
| growth % | 22.1 | 21.2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 58 | 76 | 93 | 123 | 133 | 145 | 157 | 171 | 185 |
| margin % | 24.0 | 25.8 | 28.5 | 34.9 | 34.9 | 34.9 | 34.9 | 34.9 | 34.9 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (12) | (18) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (28) | (30) | (33) |
| EBIT | 52 | 64 | 74 | 101 | 110 | 119 | 129 | 140 | 152 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 100 | 108 | 118 | 128 | 139 | 150 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 |
| less capex | (22) | (34) | (48) | (20) | (21) | (25) | (29) | (34) | (39) |
| less working-capital build | — | (90) | (98) | (106) | (115) | (125) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 45 | 28 | (68) | — | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 20 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 186, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 101 | 110 | 119 | 129 | 140 | 152 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 93 | 102 | 112 | 123 | 135 | |
| Profit after tax | 95 | 92 | 101 | 111 | 122 | 133 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 89 | 93 | 97 | 100 | 103 | 105 |
| Working capital | 1,060 | 1,150 | 1,248 | 1,354 | 1,470 | 1,594 |
| Net block and other assets | 428 | 426 | 426 | 427 | 431 | 437 |
| Debt | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 |
| Equity | 485 | 576 | 677 | 788 | 910 | 1,043 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 41 | |
| Investing (capex) | (21) | (25) | (29) | (34) | (39) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 34.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹14 | (94.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.