Models
AIA ENGINEERING LIMITEDAIAENGIndustrial Products
₹1,460per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,460implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.7×
Against CMP ₹4,099.90−64.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,145₹2,086
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,002₹5,180
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,532 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,875 |
| Enterprise value | 13,407 |
| less net debt | 215 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 13,622 |
| ÷ 9.33 crore shares | ₹1,460 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,506 | 1,612 | 1,738 | 1,893 | 2,086 |
| 10.50% | 1,395 | 1,483 | 1,586 | 1,711 | 1,862 |
| 11.00% | 1,300 | 1,374 | 1,460 | 1,561 | 1,683 |
| 11.50% | 1,217 | 1,280 | 1,353 | 1,437 | 1,537 |
| 12.00% | 1,145 | 1,199 | 1,261 | 1,332 | 1,415 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,099.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,232 · 1,450 · 1,717 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,909 | 4,854 | 4,287 | 4,420 | 4,552 | 4,689 | 4,830 | 4,975 | 5,124 |
| growth % | 37.6 | (1.1) | (11.7) | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,241 | 1,335 | 1,149 | 1,253 | 1,288 | 1,327 | 1,367 | 1,408 | 1,450 |
| margin % | 25.3 | 27.5 | 26.8 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| less depreciation | (93) | (100) | (103) | (113) | (114) | (117) | (121) | (124) | (128) |
| EBIT | 1,148 | 1,235 | 1,046 | 1,140 | 1,175 | 1,210 | 1,246 | 1,283 | 1,322 |
| less tax on EBIT | (234) | (241) | (248) | (255) | (263) | (271) | |||
| NOPAT | 907 | 934 | 962 | 991 | 1,020 | 1,051 | |||
| add depreciation | 93 | 100 | 103 | 113 | 114 | 117 | 121 | 124 | 128 |
| less capex | (195) | (211) | (137) | (104) | (109) | (120) | (130) | (142) | (154) |
| less working-capital build | — | (66) | (68) | (70) | (72) | (74) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 673 | 692 | 1,025 | — | 872 | 891 | 911 | 931 | 951 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 828 | 762 | 702 | 646 | 595 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 10.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,140 | 1,175 | 1,210 | 1,246 | 1,283 | 1,322 |
| Interest at 15.1% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,175 | 1,210 | 1,246 | 1,283 | 1,322 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,270 | 934 | 962 | 991 | 1,020 | 1,051 |
| Dividends | (136) | (100) | (103) | (106) | (109) | (112) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 215 | 987 | 1,776 | 2,580 | 3,402 | 4,240 |
| Working capital | 2,205 | 2,271 | 2,339 | 2,410 | 2,482 | 2,556 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,118 | 6,113 | 6,116 | 6,125 | 6,143 | 6,168 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 8,034 | 8,868 | 9,727 | 10,612 | 11,523 | 12,461 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 981 | 1,011 | 1,041 | 1,072 | 1,105 | |
| Investing (capex) | (109) | (120) | (130) | (142) | (154) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (100) | (103) | (106) | (109) | (112) | |
| Net change in cash | 772 | 788 | 805 | 821 | 838 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 872 | 891 | 911 | 931 | 951 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 28.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,460 | (64.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.