Models
AJAX ENGINEERING LIMITEDAJAXENGGAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹258per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹258implied FY26 P/E 13.0× · EV/EBITDA 10.6×
Against CMP ₹590.00−56.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹204₹365
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹395₹698
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 718 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,069 |
| Enterprise value | 2,787 |
| less net debt | 166 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,953 |
| ÷ 11.44 crore shares | ₹258 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 266 | 284 | 306 | 332 | 365 |
| 10.50% | 247 | 262 | 280 | 301 | 327 |
| 11.00% | 231 | 243 | 258 | 275 | 296 |
| 11.50% | 217 | 227 | 240 | 254 | 271 |
| 12.00% | 204 | 214 | 224 | 236 | 251 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹590.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 222 · 257 · 300 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,074 | 2,103 | 2,134 | 2,166 | 2,199 | 2,232 | 2,265 |
| growth % | — | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 318 | 263 | 267 | 271 | 275 | 279 | 283 |
| margin % | 15.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) |
| EBIT | 307 | 252 | 256 | 260 | 264 | 268 | 272 |
| less tax on EBIT | (64) | (65) | (66) | (67) | (68) | (69) | |
| NOPAT | 188 | 191 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 203 | |
| add depreciation | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| less capex | (23) | (28) | (28) | (24) | (21) | (17) | (14) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 19 | — | 173 | 179 | 186 | 192 | 199 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 164 | 153 | 143 | 133 | 125 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 252 | 256 | 260 | 264 | 268 | 272 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 256 | 260 | 264 | 268 | 272 | |
| Profit after tax | 225 | 191 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 203 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 166 | 339 | 518 | 703 | 896 | 1,095 |
| Working capital | 99 | 100 | 101 | 103 | 105 | 106 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,487 | 1,504 | 1,518 | 1,528 | 1,534 | 1,536 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,392 | 1,584 | 1,778 | 1,975 | 2,175 | 2,378 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 200 | 203 | 207 | 210 | 213 | |
| Investing (capex) | (28) | (24) | (21) | (17) | (14) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 173 | 179 | 186 | 192 | 199 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 173 | 179 | 186 | 192 | 199 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 12.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹258 | (56.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.