Models
AKUMS DRUGS AND PHARMA LAKUMSPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹194per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹194implied FY26 P/E 10.2× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹774.90−75.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹154₹274
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹409₹797
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 573 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,080 |
| Enterprise value | 2,653 |
| less net debt | 313 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,966 |
| ÷ 15.31 crore shares | ₹194 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 200 | 213 | 229 | 249 | 274 |
| 10.50% | 185 | 197 | 210 | 226 | 245 |
| 11.00% | 173 | 183 | 194 | 207 | 222 |
| 11.50% | 163 | 171 | 180 | 191 | 204 |
| 12.00% | 154 | 160 | 168 | 178 | 188 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹774.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 148 · 192 · 241 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,118 | 4,359 | 4,621 | 4,898 | 5,192 | 5,503 | 5,833 |
| growth % | — | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 481 | 502 | 531 | 563 | 597 | 633 | 671 |
| margin % | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | (153) | (155) | (162) | (171) | (182) | (193) | (204) |
| EBIT | 328 | 347 | 370 | 392 | 415 | 440 | 467 |
| less tax on EBIT | (114) | (122) | (129) | (137) | (145) | (154) | |
| NOPAT | 233 | 248 | 263 | 279 | 295 | 313 | |
| add depreciation | 153 | 155 | 162 | 171 | 182 | 193 | 204 |
| less capex | (272) | (231) | (245) | (246) | (247) | (246) | (245) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (60) | (64) | (68) | (72) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 193 | — | 108 | 128 | 150 | 174 | 200 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 102 | 109 | 115 | 121 | 125 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 73, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 347 | 370 | 392 | 415 | 440 | 467 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 364 | 386 | 409 | 434 | 461 | |
| Profit after tax | 255 | 244 | 259 | 275 | 291 | 309 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 386 | 490 | 614 | 760 | 930 | 1,126 |
| Working capital | 951 | 1,008 | 1,068 | 1,132 | 1,200 | 1,272 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,110 | 4,194 | 4,268 | 4,333 | 4,387 | 4,428 |
| Debt | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 |
| Equity | 3,331 | 3,575 | 3,834 | 4,109 | 4,400 | 4,710 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 349 | 370 | 392 | 416 | 441 | |
| Investing (capex) | (245) | (246) | (247) | (246) | (245) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 104 | 124 | 146 | 170 | 196 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 104 | 124 | 146 | 170 | 196 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹194 | (75.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.