ALEMBIC LIMITED — valuation model

ALEMBIC LIMITEDALEMBICLTDRealty

₹44per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹44implied FY26 P/E 3.5× · EV/EBITDA 12.5×

Against CMP ₹105.30−58.5%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies36.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹33₹64

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹70₹118

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	229
PV of terminal value	902
Enterprise value	1,131
less net debt	(9)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	1,122
÷ 25.68 crore shares	₹44

80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	45	49	53	58	64
10.50%	42	44	48	52	57
11.00%	38	41	44	47	51
11.50%	36	38	40	43	46
12.00%	33	35	37	40	42

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹105.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	36 · 43 · 53
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.67
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.63
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.31

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	127	157	222	240	259	280	302	327	353
growth %	62.7	23.8	40.9	8.2	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
EBITDA	30	57	94	90	98	106	114	123	133
margin %	23.4	36.1	42.2	37.7	37.7	37.7	37.7	37.7	37.7
less depreciation	(7)	(8)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(15)	(16)	(17)	(18)
EBIT	23	49	83	78	84	91	98	106	115
less tax on EBIT				(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)	(18)
NOPAT				66	71	77	83	90	97
add depreciation	7	8	11	12	13	15	16	17	18
less capex	(0)	(1)	(7)	(38)	(41)	(38)	(33)	(28)	(22)
less working-capital build				—	(5)	(5)	(6)	(6)	(7)
Free cash flow to firm	39	21	80	—	39	49	60	73	87
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					37	42	46	50	54

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 11, dividends at 26.7% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	78	84	91	98	106	115
Interest at 18.2% on debt		(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
Profit before tax		82	89	96	104	113
Profit after tax	230	70	75	82	88	95
Dividends	(61)	(19)	(20)	(22)	(24)	(25)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	1	20	47	83	131	190
Working capital	60	65	70	76	82	89
Net block and other assets	2,528	2,556	2,579	2,596	2,608	2,611
Debt	11	11	11	11	11	11
Equity	2,445	2,496	2,551	2,611	2,676	2,746
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		78	85	92	99	107
Investing (capex)		(41)	(38)	(33)	(28)	(22)
Financing (dividends)		(19)	(20)	(22)	(24)	(25)
Net change in cash		19	27	36	47	60
Free cash flow to equity		37	47	58	71	85

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	8%	37.7%	11.00%	5%	₹44	(58.5)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.