Models
ALEMBIC PHARMA LTDAPLLTDPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹335per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹335implied FY26 P/E 9.5× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹807.00−58.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹244₹517
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹636₹998
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,712 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,043 |
| Enterprise value | 7,755 |
| less net debt | (1,164) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,591 |
| ÷ 19.66 crore shares | ₹335 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 349 | 379 | 416 | 461 | 517 |
| 10.50% | 316 | 342 | 372 | 408 | 452 |
| 11.00% | 289 | 310 | 335 | 365 | 400 |
| 11.50% | 265 | 283 | 304 | 329 | 358 |
| 12.00% | 244 | 260 | 278 | 299 | 323 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹807.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 205 · 332 · 461 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,653 | 6,229 | 6,672 | 7,345 | 8,079 | 8,887 | 9,776 | 10,754 | 11,829 |
| growth % | 6.5 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 708 | 933 | 1,021 | 1,051 | 1,155 | 1,271 | 1,398 | 1,538 | 1,692 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 15.0 | 15.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| less depreciation | (275) | (273) | (279) | (319) | (347) | (382) | (420) | (462) | (509) |
| EBIT | 433 | 661 | 743 | 733 | 808 | 889 | 978 | 1,075 | 1,183 |
| less tax on EBIT | (24) | (27) | (29) | (32) | (35) | (39) | |||
| NOPAT | 709 | 781 | 859 | 945 | 1,040 | 1,144 | |||
| add depreciation | 275 | 273 | 279 | 319 | 347 | 382 | 420 | 462 | 509 |
| less capex | (443) | (327) | (564) | (435) | (477) | (508) | (541) | (575) | (610) |
| less working-capital build | — | (314) | (346) | (380) | (418) | (460) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 281 | 476 | (476) | — | 338 | 388 | 445 | 509 | 582 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 320 | 332 | 343 | 353 | 364 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,361, dividends at 32.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 733 | 808 | 889 | 978 | 1,075 | 1,183 |
| Interest at 7.3% on debt | (99) | (99) | (99) | (99) | (99) | |
| Profit before tax | 709 | 789 | 878 | 976 | 1,084 | |
| Profit after tax | 671 | 685 | 763 | 849 | 944 | 1,048 |
| Dividends | (216) | (221) | (246) | (273) | (304) | (337) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 196 | 217 | 263 | 338 | 448 | 596 |
| Working capital | 3,141 | 3,456 | 3,801 | 4,182 | 4,600 | 5,060 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,425 | 5,554 | 5,680 | 5,800 | 5,913 | 6,014 |
| Debt | 1,361 | 1,361 | 1,361 | 1,361 | 1,361 | 1,361 |
| Equity | 5,669 | 6,134 | 6,651 | 7,227 | 7,867 | 8,577 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 718 | 800 | 889 | 988 | 1,096 | |
| Investing (capex) | (477) | (508) | (541) | (575) | (610) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (221) | (246) | (273) | (304) | (337) | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 46 | 75 | 109 | 148 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 242 | 292 | 349 | 413 | 486 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 14.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹335 | (58.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.