Models
ALICON CASTALLOY LIMITEDALICONAuto Components
₹77per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹77implied FY26 P/E 2.6× · EV/EBITDA 2.3×
Against CMP ₹728.20−89.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹18₹195
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹580₹1,022
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 106 |
| PV of terminal value | 326 |
| Enterprise value | 432 |
| less net debt | (306) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 126 |
| ÷ 1.64 crore shares | ₹77 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 86 | 105 | 129 | 158 | 195 |
| 10.50% | 65 | 81 | 101 | 124 | 153 |
| 11.00% | 47 | 61 | 77 | 96 | 119 |
| 11.50% | 32 | 43 | 57 | 73 | 92 |
| 12.00% | 18 | 28 | 40 | 53 | 69 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹728.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (65) · 75 · 217 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,401 | 1,559 | 1,720 | 1,776 | 1,829 | 1,884 | 1,940 | 1,999 | 2,059 |
| growth % | 30.0 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 153 | 195 | 194 | 187 | 192 | 198 | 204 | 210 | 216 |
| margin % | 10.9 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (64) | (78) | (91) | (106) | (110) | (113) | (116) | (120) | (124) |
| EBIT | 90 | 118 | 103 | 81 | 82 | 85 | 87 | 90 | 93 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (22) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 59 | 60 | 62 | 64 | 66 | 68 | |||
| add depreciation | 64 | 78 | 91 | 106 | 110 | 113 | 116 | 120 | 124 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (165) | (132) | (135) | (138) | (142) | (145) | (148) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (12) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 87 | 157 | 40 | — | 24 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 31 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 325, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 81 | 82 | 85 | 87 | 90 | 93 |
| Interest at 12.7% on debt | (41) | (41) | (41) | (41) | (41) | |
| Profit before tax | 41 | 43 | 46 | 49 | 51 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 38 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Working capital | 345 | 355 | 366 | 377 | 388 | 400 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,078 | 1,103 | 1,129 | 1,154 | 1,179 | 1,204 |
| Debt | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 |
| Equity | 628 | 658 | 690 | 724 | 759 | 797 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 129 | 134 | 139 | 144 | 149 | |
| Investing (capex) | (135) | (138) | (142) | (145) | (148) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (6) | (4) | (3) | (1) | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (6) | (4) | (3) | (1) | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹77 | (89.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.