Models
ALIVUS LIFE SCIENCES LTDALIVUSPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹609per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹609implied FY26 P/E 12.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹1,388.80−56.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹464₹900
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹819₹1,494
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,435 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,042 |
| Enterprise value | 7,477 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,479 |
| ÷ 12.27 crore shares | ₹609 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 630 | 679 | 738 | 810 | 900 |
| 10.50% | 579 | 620 | 668 | 726 | 796 |
| 11.00% | 535 | 569 | 609 | 657 | 713 |
| 11.50% | 497 | 526 | 560 | 599 | 646 |
| 12.00% | 464 | 489 | 518 | 551 | 589 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,388.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 496 · 603 · 737 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,161 | 2,283 | 2,387 | 2,552 | 2,730 | 2,922 | 3,126 | 3,345 | 3,579 |
| growth % | 1.8 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 642 | 674 | 683 | 772 | 825 | 882 | 944 | 1,010 | 1,081 |
| margin % | 29.7 | 29.5 | 28.6 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 |
| less depreciation | (42) | (53) | (61) | (75) | (82) | (88) | (94) | (100) | (107) |
| EBIT | 600 | 621 | 622 | 696 | 743 | 795 | 850 | 910 | 974 |
| less tax on EBIT | (173) | (185) | (198) | (212) | (227) | (242) | |||
| NOPAT | 523 | 558 | 597 | 639 | 683 | 731 | |||
| add depreciation | 42 | 53 | 61 | 75 | 82 | 88 | 94 | 100 | 107 |
| less capex | (170) | (129) | (166) | (307) | (328) | (289) | (244) | (191) | (129) |
| less working-capital build | — | (98) | (104) | (112) | (119) | (128) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 143 | 285 | 225 | — | 214 | 291 | 377 | 473 | 582 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 204 | 249 | 290 | 329 | 364 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 10.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 696 | 743 | 795 | 850 | 910 | 974 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 743 | 795 | 850 | 910 | 974 | |
| Profit after tax | 564 | 558 | 597 | 639 | 683 | 731 |
| Dividends | (61) | (61) | (65) | (70) | (74) | (80) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 156 | 381 | 689 | 1,088 | 1,590 |
| Working capital | 1,393 | 1,490 | 1,595 | 1,706 | 1,826 | 1,954 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,588 | 2,834 | 3,036 | 3,186 | 3,276 | 3,297 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,332 | 3,829 | 4,361 | 4,930 | 5,539 | 6,190 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 542 | 580 | 621 | 664 | 711 | |
| Investing (capex) | (328) | (289) | (244) | (191) | (129) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (61) | (65) | (70) | (74) | (80) | |
| Net change in cash | 154 | 226 | 307 | 399 | 502 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 214 | 291 | 377 | 473 | 582 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 30.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹609 | (56.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.