Models
ALKEM LABORATORIES LTD.ALKEMPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹2,890per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,890implied FY26 P/E 16.0× · EV/EBITDA 12.7×
Against CMP ₹5,087.50−43.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,191₹4,285
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5,075₹5,934
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7,694 |
| PV of terminal value | 28,230 |
| Enterprise value | 35,924 |
| less net debt | (1,376) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 34,548 |
| ÷ 11.96 crore shares | ₹2,890 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,991 | 3,226 | 3,509 | 3,854 | 4,285 |
| 10.50% | 2,744 | 2,940 | 3,171 | 3,448 | 3,787 |
| 11.00% | 2,533 | 2,698 | 2,890 | 3,117 | 3,389 |
| 11.50% | 2,351 | 2,491 | 2,652 | 2,841 | 3,064 |
| 12.00% | 2,191 | 2,311 | 2,449 | 2,608 | 2,793 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,087.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,285 · 2,854 · 3,561 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,599 | 12,668 | 12,965 | 14,712 | 16,698 | 18,953 | 21,511 | 24,415 | 27,711 |
| growth % | 9.1 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,506 | 2,124 | 2,512 | 2,830 | 3,206 | 3,639 | 4,130 | 4,688 | 5,321 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 16.8 | 19.4 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (310) | (299) | (357) | (382) | (434) | (493) | (559) | (635) | (720) |
| EBIT | 1,196 | 1,825 | 2,155 | 2,448 | 2,772 | 3,146 | 3,571 | 4,053 | 4,600 |
| less tax on EBIT | (441) | (499) | (566) | (643) | (730) | (828) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,008 | 2,273 | 2,580 | 2,928 | 3,323 | 3,772 | |||
| add depreciation | 310 | 299 | 357 | 382 | 434 | 493 | 559 | 635 | 720 |
| less capex | (233) | (259) | (676) | (617) | (701) | (745) | (787) | (828) | (865) |
| less working-capital build | — | (548) | (622) | (706) | (802) | (910) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,450 | 1,689 | 1,237 | — | 1,458 | 1,706 | 1,994 | 2,329 | 2,718 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,384 | 1,458 | 1,536 | 1,616 | 1,700 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,624, dividends at 26.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,448 | 2,772 | 3,146 | 3,571 | 4,053 | 4,600 |
| Interest at 12% on debt | (195) | (195) | (195) | (195) | (195) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,577 | 2,951 | 3,376 | 3,858 | 4,405 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,302 | 2,113 | 2,420 | 2,768 | 3,164 | 3,612 |
| Dividends | (614) | (564) | (646) | (739) | (845) | (964) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 248 | 982 | 1,881 | 2,976 | 4,301 | 5,895 |
| Working capital | 4,067 | 4,615 | 5,237 | 5,944 | 6,745 | 7,655 |
| Net block and other assets | 16,558 | 16,825 | 17,077 | 17,305 | 17,498 | 17,642 |
| Debt | 1,624 | 1,624 | 1,624 | 1,624 | 1,624 | 1,624 |
| Equity | 14,349 | 15,898 | 17,672 | 19,701 | 22,020 | 24,668 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,999 | 2,291 | 2,621 | 2,997 | 3,423 | |
| Investing (capex) | (701) | (745) | (787) | (828) | (865) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (564) | (646) | (739) | (845) | (964) | |
| Net change in cash | 734 | 900 | 1,095 | 1,325 | 1,594 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,298 | 1,546 | 1,834 | 2,169 | 2,559 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,890 | (43.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.