₹48per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹48implied FY26 P/E 8.6× · EV/EBITDA 3.5×
Against CMP ₹221.10−78.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31136%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹85
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹186₹315
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (111) |
| PV of terminal value | 415 |
| Enterprise value | 304 |
| less net debt | 9 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 313 |
| ÷ 6.55 crore shares | ₹48 |
136% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 56 | 64 | 73 | 85 |
| 10.50% | 44 | 49 | 55 | 62 | 72 |
| 11.00% | 38 | 43 | 48 | 54 | 61 |
| 11.50% | 34 | 37 | 42 | 47 | 53 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 33 | 36 | 41 | 46 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹221.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 26 · 47 · 70 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 611 | 659 | 712 | 769 | 831 | 897 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 86 | 92 | 100 | 108 | 116 | 126 |
| margin % | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (32) | (34) | (37) | (40) | (43) |
| EBIT | 57 | 61 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 83 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) |
| NOPAT | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 |
| add depreciation | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| less capex | (133) | (143) | (126) | (106) | (81) | (52) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (76) | (53) | (27) | 4 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (72) | (46) | (21) | 3 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 80, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 57 | 61 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 83 |
| Interest at 19% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 50 | 55 | 61 | 67 | |
| Profit after tax | 35 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 50 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 89 | 2 | (62) | (101) | (108) | (79) |
| Working capital | 113 | 122 | 132 | 142 | 154 | 166 |
| Net block and other assets | 582 | 693 | 785 | 854 | 895 | 903 |
| Debt | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| Equity | 614 | 647 | 684 | 725 | 770 | 820 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 56 | 61 | 67 | 74 | 80 | |
| Investing (capex) | (143) | (126) | (106) | (81) | (52) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (87) | (65) | (38) | (7) | 29 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (87) | (65) | (38) | (7) | 29 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 14% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹48 | (78.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.