Models
ALLCARGO TERMINALS LTDATLTransport Infrastructure
₹54per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹54implied FY26 P/E 34.9× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹25.14+113.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(10.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹43₹75
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹18₹41
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 468 |
| PV of terminal value | 930 |
| Enterprise value | 1,398 |
| less net debt | 10 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,408 |
| ÷ 26.20 crore shares | ₹54 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 55 | 59 | 63 | 68 | 75 |
| 10.50% | 52 | 55 | 58 | 62 | 67 |
| 11.00% | 48 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 61 |
| 11.50% | 46 | 48 | 50 | 53 | 56 |
| 12.00% | 43 | 45 | 47 | 49 | 52 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹25.14; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 42 · 53 · 67 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 733 | 758 | 821 | 891 | 966 | 1,048 | 1,138 | 1,234 |
| growth % | — | 3.4 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 117 | 121 | 161 | 175 | 189 | 205 | 223 | 242 |
| margin % | 16.0 | 16.0 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| less depreciation | (54) | (56) | (68) | (74) | (80) | (87) | (94) | (102) |
| EBIT | 63 | 65 | 93 | 101 | 109 | 118 | 129 | 139 |
| less tax on EBIT | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) | ||
| NOPAT | 73 | 79 | 86 | 93 | 101 | 110 | ||
| add depreciation | 54 | 56 | 68 | 74 | 80 | 87 | 94 | 102 |
| less capex | (25) | (7) | (12) | (13) | (35) | (60) | (89) | (123) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 75 | 101 | — | 140 | 131 | 120 | 107 | 90 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 133 | 112 | 93 | 74 | 56 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 93 | 101 | 109 | 118 | 129 | 139 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 101 | 109 | 118 | 129 | 139 | |
| Profit after tax | 44 | 79 | 86 | 93 | 101 | 110 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 150 | 281 | 401 | 508 | 598 |
| Working capital | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,281 | 1,221 | 1,176 | 1,149 | 1,144 | 1,164 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 353 | 432 | 518 | 612 | 713 | 823 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 153 | 166 | 180 | 196 | 212 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (35) | (60) | (89) | (123) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 140 | 131 | 120 | 107 | 90 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 140 | 131 | 120 | 107 | 90 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 19.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹54 | 113.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.