Models
ALLIED BLEND N DISTILS LABDLBeverages
₹95per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹95implied FY26 P/E 12.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹636.00−85.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹157
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹382₹712
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 737 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,945 |
| Enterprise value | 3,682 |
| less net debt | (1,017) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,665 |
| ÷ 27.97 crore shares | ₹95 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 100 | 110 | 123 | 138 | 157 |
| 10.50% | 89 | 98 | 108 | 120 | 135 |
| 11.00% | 79 | 87 | 95 | 105 | 118 |
| 11.50% | 71 | 78 | 85 | 93 | 103 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 70 | 76 | 83 | 91 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹636.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 75 · 95 · 120 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.78 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,669 | 8,073 | 7,571 | 7,193 | 6,833 | 6,491 | 6,167 | 5,859 |
| growth % | — | 5.3 | (6.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 237 | 431 | 539 | 511 | 485 | 461 | 438 | 416 |
| margin % | 3.1 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| less depreciation | (58) | (61) | (79) | (72) | (68) | (65) | (62) | (59) |
| EBIT | 179 | 370 | 460 | 439 | 417 | 396 | 376 | 357 |
| less tax on EBIT | (172) | (164) | (155) | (148) | (140) | (133) | ||
| NOPAT | 288 | 275 | 261 | 248 | 236 | 224 | ||
| add depreciation | 58 | 61 | 79 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | 59 |
| less capex | (46) | (130) | (349) | (331) | (256) | (188) | (126) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | 87 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 140 | (809) | — | 104 | 157 | 204 | 246 | 284 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 98 | 134 | 157 | 171 | 177 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,146, dividends at 44.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 460 | 439 | 417 | 396 | 376 | 357 |
| Interest at 13.2% on debt | (151) | (151) | (151) | (151) | (151) | |
| Profit before tax | 288 | 266 | 245 | 225 | 206 | |
| Profit after tax | 228 | 180 | 167 | 153 | 141 | 129 |
| Dividends | (101) | (80) | (73) | (68) | (62) | (57) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 129 | 58 | 46 | 88 | 177 | 309 |
| Working capital | 1,747 | 1,659 | 1,576 | 1,497 | 1,422 | 1,351 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,278 | 2,537 | 2,725 | 2,848 | 2,913 | 2,925 |
| Debt | 1,146 | 1,146 | 1,146 | 1,146 | 1,146 | 1,146 |
| Equity | 1,686 | 1,787 | 1,880 | 1,965 | 2,044 | 2,116 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 340 | 318 | 297 | 278 | 259 | |
| Investing (capex) | (331) | (256) | (188) | (126) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (80) | (73) | (68) | (62) | (57) | |
| Net change in cash | (71) | (12) | 41 | 89 | 132 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 62 | 109 | 151 | 189 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 7.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹95 | (85.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.