Models
ALPEX SOLAR LIMITEDALPEXSOLAR
₹1,584per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,584implied FY26 P/E 20.0× · EV/EBITDA 14.2×
Against CMP ₹940.00+68.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3196%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,089₹2,578
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹660₹1,375
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 201 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,322 |
| Enterprise value | 4,523 |
| less net debt | (477) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,046 |
| ÷ 2.55 crore shares | ₹1,584 |
96% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,651 | 1,819 | 2,022 | 2,269 | 2,578 |
| 10.50% | 1,477 | 1,617 | 1,782 | 1,981 | 2,224 |
| 11.00% | 1,328 | 1,446 | 1,584 | 1,747 | 1,942 |
| 11.50% | 1,200 | 1,301 | 1,417 | 1,552 | 1,711 |
| 12.00% | 1,089 | 1,175 | 1,274 | 1,387 | 1,520 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹940.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,073 · 1,543 · 2,139 |
| Draws below the CMP | 4% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 780 | 2,223 | 2,890 | 3,757 | 4,885 | 6,350 | 8,255 |
| growth % | — | 185.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 125 | 319 | 413 | 537 | 698 | 908 | 1,180 |
| margin % | 16.1 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (24) | (32) | (41) | (54) | (70) | (91) |
| EBIT | 117 | 295 | 382 | 496 | 645 | 838 | 1,090 |
| less tax on EBIT | (82) | (106) | (138) | (179) | (233) | (303) | |
| NOPAT | 213 | 275 | 358 | 466 | 605 | 787 | |
| add depreciation | 9 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 54 | 70 | 91 |
| less capex | (60) | (241) | (312) | (317) | (296) | (234) | (109) |
| less working-capital build | — | (123) | (160) | (209) | (271) | (352) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 22 | — | (128) | (78) | 15 | 170 | 416 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (122) | (66) | 11 | 118 | 260 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 507, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 295 | 382 | 496 | 645 | 838 | 1,090 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 341 | 456 | 605 | 798 | 1,050 | |
| Profit after tax | 201 | 247 | 329 | 437 | 576 | 758 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 30 | (128) | (234) | (248) | (108) | 280 |
| Working capital | 412 | 535 | 696 | 904 | 1,175 | 1,528 |
| Net block and other assets | 943 | 1,223 | 1,498 | 1,741 | 1,905 | 1,923 |
| Debt | 507 | 507 | 507 | 507 | 507 | 507 |
| Equity | 562 | 808 | 1,138 | 1,574 | 2,150 | 2,908 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 155 | 210 | 282 | 375 | 496 | |
| Investing (capex) | (312) | (317) | (296) | (234) | (109) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (157) | (107) | (14) | 141 | 387 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (157) | (107) | (14) | 141 | 387 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 14.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,584 | 68.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.