Models
ALUFLUORIDE LTD.ALUFLUORChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹564per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹564implied FY26 P/E 17.6× · EV/EBITDA 10.6×
Against CMP ₹486.30+16.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹421₹851
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 99 |
| PV of terminal value | 379 |
| Enterprise value | 478 |
| less net debt | (37) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 441 |
| ÷ 0.78 crore shares | ₹564 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 585 | 633 | 691 | 762 | 851 |
| 10.50% | 534 | 574 | 622 | 679 | 748 |
| 11.00% | 491 | 525 | 564 | 611 | 667 |
| 11.50% | 453 | 482 | 515 | 554 | 600 |
| 12.00% | 421 | 445 | 474 | 506 | 544 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹486.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 441 · 559 · 704 |
| Draws below the CMP | 22% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 136 | 162 | 189 | 209 | 231 | 255 | 282 | 311 | 344 |
| growth % | 54.7 | 19.0 | 16.4 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 27 | 31 | 34 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 61 | 67 | 74 |
| margin % | 19.7 | 19.0 | 17.8 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (16) |
| EBIT | 19 | 22 | 25 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 58 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) | (15) | |||
| NOPAT | 26 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 43 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| less capex | (15) | (8) | (10) | (18) | (20) | (20) | (20) | (19) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 27 | 2 | — | 18 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 37 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 38, dividends at 9.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 39 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 58 |
| Interest at 8.5% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 | 55 | |
| Profit after tax | 25 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 36 | 40 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 13 | 30 | 50 | 75 | 105 |
| Working capital | 19 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 32 |
| Net block and other assets | 174 | 183 | 191 | 198 | 203 | 206 |
| Debt | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Equity | 126 | 150 | 176 | 206 | 239 | 275 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 35 | 39 | 43 | 48 | 53 | |
| Investing (capex) | (20) | (20) | (20) | (19) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 | 30 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 15 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 34 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 21.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹564 | 16.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.