Models
AMAL LTD.AMALChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹631per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹631implied FY26 P/E 34.9× · EV/EBITDA 21.8×
Against CMP ₹741.00−14.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies35.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹482₹929
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 156 |
| PV of terminal value | 623 |
| Enterprise value | 778 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 780 |
| ÷ 1.24 crore shares | ₹631 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 653 | 703 | 763 | 837 | 929 |
| 10.50% | 600 | 642 | 691 | 750 | 823 |
| 11.00% | 555 | 590 | 631 | 680 | 738 |
| 11.50% | 516 | 546 | 581 | 621 | 668 |
| 12.00% | 482 | 508 | 537 | 571 | 611 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹741.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 458 · 624 · 848 |
| Draws below the CMP | 75% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 61 | 86 | 135 | 240 | 312 | 405 | 526 | 684 | 890 |
| growth % | 41.0 | 40.4 | 57.2 | 77.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (6) | 15 | 43 | 36 | 46 | 60 | 78 | 102 | 133 |
| margin % | (9.1) | 17.8 | 32.0 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) |
| EBIT | (12) | 6 | 34 | 26 | 34 | 45 | 58 | 75 | 98 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 27 | 36 | 46 | 60 | 78 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 35 |
| less capex | (16) | (8) | (4) | (7) | (9) | (14) | (20) | (29) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (26) | 13 | 46 | — | 27 | 33 | 40 | 49 | 60 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 25 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 5.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 26 | 34 | 45 | 58 | 75 | 98 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 34 | 45 | 58 | 75 | 98 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 27 | 36 | 46 | 60 | 78 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 27 | 58 | 95 | 141 | 197 |
| Working capital | 14 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 38 | 50 |
| Net block and other assets | 139 | 136 | 133 | 133 | 135 | 142 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 120 | 146 | 180 | 224 | 281 | 355 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 36 | 46 | 60 | 78 | 102 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9) | (14) | (20) | (29) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 25 | 31 | 38 | 46 | 56 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 27 | 33 | 40 | 49 | 60 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 14.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹631 | (14.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.