Models
AMARA RAJA ENERGY MOB LTDARE&MAuto Components
₹507per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹507implied FY26 P/E 10.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹815.95−37.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹375₹771
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹670₹1,058
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,125 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,199 |
| Enterprise value | 9,324 |
| less net debt | (50) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,274 |
| ÷ 18.30 crore shares | ₹507 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 525 | 570 | 623 | 689 | 771 |
| 10.50% | 479 | 516 | 560 | 612 | 677 |
| 11.00% | 439 | 470 | 507 | 550 | 602 |
| 11.50% | 405 | 431 | 462 | 498 | 540 |
| 12.00% | 375 | 398 | 424 | 454 | 489 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹815.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 352 · 503 · 667 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,388 | 11,708 | 12,846 | 13,814 | 14,850 | 15,964 | 17,161 | 18,448 | 19,832 |
| growth % | 19.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,304 | 1,659 | 1,728 | 1,752 | 1,886 | 2,027 | 2,179 | 2,343 | 2,519 |
| margin % | 12.6 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| less depreciation | (427) | (484) | (526) | (607) | (653) | (702) | (755) | (812) | (873) |
| EBIT | 877 | 1,174 | 1,202 | 1,145 | 1,233 | 1,325 | 1,424 | 1,531 | 1,646 |
| less tax on EBIT | (295) | (318) | (342) | (367) | (395) | (425) | |||
| NOPAT | 850 | 915 | 983 | 1,057 | 1,136 | 1,221 | |||
| add depreciation | 427 | 484 | 526 | 607 | 653 | 702 | 755 | 812 | 873 |
| less capex | (492) | (871) | (1,200) | (1,341) | (1,440) | (1,372) | (1,285) | (1,178) | (1,047) |
| less working-capital build | — | (193) | (207) | (223) | (239) | (257) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 422 | 395 | 151 | — | (65) | 106 | 304 | 531 | 789 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (62) | 91 | 234 | 368 | 494 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 276, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,145 | 1,233 | 1,325 | 1,424 | 1,531 | 1,646 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,210 | 1,303 | 1,402 | 1,509 | 1,624 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 898 | 967 | 1,040 | 1,120 | 1,205 |
| Dividends | (194) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 226 | 144 | 234 | 522 | 1,036 | 1,809 |
| Working capital | 2,574 | 2,766 | 2,973 | 3,196 | 3,436 | 3,693 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,657 | 9,444 | 10,114 | 10,644 | 11,010 | 11,185 |
| Debt | 276 | 276 | 276 | 276 | 276 | 276 |
| Equity | 8,099 | 8,997 | 9,964 | 11,004 | 12,124 | 13,329 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,359 | 1,462 | 1,573 | 1,692 | 1,820 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,440) | (1,372) | (1,285) | (1,178) | (1,047) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (82) | 90 | 287 | 514 | 773 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (82) | 90 | 287 | 514 | 773 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 12.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹507 | (37.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.