Models
Amba Enterprises Ltd.BSE 539196Electrical Equipment
₹75per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹75implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹117.40−35.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹59₹107
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹94₹178
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 20 |
| PV of terminal value | 68 |
| Enterprise value | 88 |
| less net debt | 7 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 95 |
| ÷ 1.27 crore shares | ₹75 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 78 | 83 | 89 | 97 | 107 |
| 10.50% | 72 | 76 | 82 | 88 | 96 |
| 11.00% | 67 | 71 | 75 | 80 | 87 |
| 11.50% | 63 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 79 |
| 12.00% | 59 | 62 | 65 | 69 | 73 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹117.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 50 · 74 · 97 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 218 | 282 | 337 | 390 | 452 | 525 | 609 | 706 | 819 |
| growth % | (0.6) | 29.3 | 19.4 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| margin % | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| EBIT | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 0 | (6) | 5 | — | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 11.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 23 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | |
| Profit after tax | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 28 |
| Working capital | 35 | 40 | 46 | 54 | 62 | 72 |
| Net block and other assets | 80 | 80 | 80 | 79 | 80 | 80 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 50 | 58 | 67 | 78 | 91 | 106 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹75 | (35.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.