Models
AMBIKA COTTON MILL LTD.AMBIKCOTextiles & Apparels
₹935per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹935implied FY26 P/E 6.6× · EV/EBITDA 3.2×
Against CMP ₹1,595.00−41.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹751₹1,304
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,101₹1,931
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 8 |
| PV of terminal value | 360 |
| Enterprise value | 367 |
| less net debt | 168 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 535 |
| ÷ 0.57 crore shares | ₹935 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 960 | 1,022 | 1,098 | 1,189 | 1,304 |
| 10.50% | 895 | 947 | 1,009 | 1,083 | 1,173 |
| 11.00% | 840 | 884 | 935 | 995 | 1,068 |
| 11.50% | 793 | 830 | 873 | 923 | 982 |
| 12.00% | 751 | 783 | 820 | 862 | 911 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,595.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 417 · 930 · 1,374 |
| Draws below the CMP | 97% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 848 | 823 | 702 | 781 | 867 | 962 | 1,068 | 1,186 | 1,316 |
| growth % | (7.9) | (2.8) | (14.7) | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 175 | 109 | 103 | 114 | 127 | 140 | 156 | 173 | 192 |
| margin % | 20.6 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (28) | (22) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (28) | (31) | (34) |
| EBIT | 145 | 82 | 81 | 94 | 104 | 115 | 128 | 142 | 158 |
| less tax on EBIT | (24) | (27) | (30) | (33) | (36) | (40) | |||
| NOPAT | 70 | 77 | 86 | 95 | 106 | 117 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 28 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 34 |
| less capex | (18) | (51) | (27) | (62) | (69) | (65) | (59) | (51) | (41) |
| less working-capital build | — | (50) | (56) | (62) | (68) | (76) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (98) | (189) | 102 | — | (19) | (10) | 2 | 17 | 35 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (19) | (8) | 2 | 12 | 22 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 29.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 94 | 104 | 115 | 128 | 142 | 158 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 104 | 115 | 128 | 142 | 158 | |
| Profit after tax | 72 | 77 | 86 | 95 | 106 | 117 |
| Dividends | (21) | (23) | (25) | (28) | (31) | (35) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 168 | 126 | 91 | 64 | 50 | 50 |
| Working capital | 456 | 506 | 561 | 623 | 691 | 767 |
| Net block and other assets | 480 | 527 | 567 | 599 | 620 | 626 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 954 | 1,009 | 1,069 | 1,136 | 1,211 | 1,294 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 50 | 55 | 61 | 68 | 76 | |
| Investing (capex) | (69) | (65) | (59) | (51) | (41) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (23) | (25) | (28) | (31) | (35) | |
| Net change in cash | (42) | (35) | (26) | (15) | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (19) | (10) | 2 | 17 | 35 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹935 | (41.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.