Models
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTDAMBUJACEMCement & Cement Products
₹372per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹372implied FY26 P/E 21.0× · EV/EBITDA 14.7×
Against CMP ₹391.85−5.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies17.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹281₹553
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹394₹601
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15,201 |
| PV of terminal value | 76,407 |
| Enterprise value | 91,608 |
| less net debt | 839 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 92,447 |
| ÷ 248.50 crore shares | ₹372 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 385 | 416 | 452 | 497 | 553 |
| 10.50% | 353 | 378 | 408 | 445 | 489 |
| 11.00% | 326 | 347 | 372 | 402 | 437 |
| 11.50% | 302 | 320 | 341 | 366 | 395 |
| 12.00% | 281 | 297 | 315 | 336 | 360 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹391.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 241 · 366 · 516 |
| Draws below the CMP | 59% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.34 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 38,937 | 33,160 | 35,045 | 40,656 | 47,161 | 54,706 | 63,459 | 73,613 | 85,391 |
| growth % | — | (14.8) | 5.7 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,803 | 6,611 | 5,949 | 6,238 | 7,216 | 8,370 | 9,709 | 11,263 | 13,065 |
| margin % | 12.3 | 19.9 | 17.0 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| less depreciation | (1,645) | (1,623) | (2,478) | (3,570) | (4,150) | (4,814) | (5,584) | (6,478) | (7,514) |
| EBIT | 3,159 | 4,988 | 3,471 | 2,668 | 3,065 | 3,556 | 4,125 | 4,785 | 5,550 |
| less tax on EBIT | 1,902 | 2,186 | 2,535 | 2,941 | 3,412 | 3,957 | |||
| NOPAT | 4,570 | 5,251 | 6,091 | 7,066 | 8,196 | 9,508 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,645 | 1,623 | 2,478 | 3,570 | 4,150 | 4,814 | 5,584 | 6,478 | 7,514 |
| less capex | (4,232) | (4,482) | (8,687) | (6,344) | (7,357) | (7,845) | (8,300) | (8,701) | (9,017) |
| less working-capital build | — | (358) | (415) | (481) | (558) | (648) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3,497) | 1,163 | (5,392) | — | 1,686 | 2,646 | 3,868 | 5,415 | 7,357 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,601 | 2,262 | 2,980 | 3,758 | 4,600 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 53, dividends at 11.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,668 | 3,065 | 3,556 | 4,125 | 4,785 | 5,550 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,061 | 3,552 | 4,121 | 4,781 | 5,546 | |
| Profit after tax | 4,728 | 5,244 | 6,084 | 7,059 | 8,189 | 9,501 |
| Dividends | (565) | (624) | (724) | (840) | (975) | (1,131) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 892 | 1,947 | 3,861 | 6,882 | 11,315 | 17,535 |
| Working capital | 2,239 | 2,597 | 3,012 | 3,493 | 4,051 | 4,699 |
| Net block and other assets | 86,476 | 89,683 | 92,714 | 95,430 | 97,653 | 99,156 |
| Debt | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
| Equity | 71,846 | 76,466 | 81,826 | 88,045 | 95,259 | 1,03,629 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9,036 | 10,483 | 12,162 | 14,109 | 16,367 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7,357) | (7,845) | (8,300) | (8,701) | (9,017) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (624) | (724) | (840) | (975) | (1,131) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,055 | 1,914 | 3,021 | 4,433 | 6,219 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,679 | 2,638 | 3,861 | 5,408 | 7,350 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 15.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹372 | (5.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.