Models
AMIR CHAND JAG KUM (E) LAEROPLANEAgricultural Food & other Products
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹205.80−80.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹15₹89
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹117₹209
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 293 |
| PV of terminal value | 873 |
| Enterprise value | 1,165 |
| less net debt | (756) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 409 |
| ÷ 10.36 crore shares | ₹40 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 43 | 52 | 62 | 74 | 89 |
| 10.50% | 34 | 41 | 50 | 60 | 72 |
| 11.00% | 27 | 33 | 40 | 48 | 57 |
| 11.50% | 20 | 25 | 31 | 38 | 46 |
| 12.00% | 15 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹205.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (15) · 39 · 88 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,287 | 2,470 | 2,668 | 2,881 | 3,112 | 3,361 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 225 | 242 | 261 | 282 | 305 | 329 |
| margin % | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) |
| EBIT | 219 | 235 | 253 | 274 | 296 | 319 |
| less tax on EBIT | (54) | (58) | (63) | (68) | (73) | (79) |
| NOPAT | 165 | 177 | 191 | 206 | 223 | 240 |
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| less capex | (2) | (2) | (4) | (7) | (9) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (113) | (123) | (132) | (143) | (154) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 68 | 72 | 76 | 80 | 84 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 65 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 758, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 219 | 235 | 253 | 274 | 296 | 319 |
| Interest at 11.3% on debt | (86) | (86) | (86) | (86) | (86) | |
| Profit before tax | 149 | 168 | 188 | 210 | 234 | |
| Profit after tax | 103 | 112 | 126 | 142 | 158 | 176 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 40 | 60 |
| Working capital | 1,419 | 1,532 | 1,655 | 1,787 | 1,930 | 2,084 |
| Net block and other assets | 700 | 695 | 692 | 690 | 690 | 692 |
| Debt | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 | 758 |
| Equity | 924 | 1,036 | 1,163 | 1,304 | 1,462 | 1,638 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 32 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (4) | (7) | (9) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 20 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 20 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (80.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.