Models
ANAND RATHI SH N STK BR LARSSBLCapital Markets
₹719per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹719implied FY26 P/E 28.4× · EV/EBITDA 13.9×
Against CMP ₹492.05+46.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies0.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹531₹1,092
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹416₹795
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,303 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,980 |
| Enterprise value | 5,282 |
| less net debt | (752) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,530 |
| ÷ 6.30 crore shares | ₹719 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 746 | 809 | 885 | 977 | 1,092 |
| 10.50% | 680 | 732 | 794 | 868 | 959 |
| 11.00% | 623 | 667 | 719 | 780 | 852 |
| 11.50% | 574 | 612 | 655 | 706 | 765 |
| 12.00% | 531 | 564 | 600 | 643 | 692 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹492.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 578 · 715 · 883 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 932 | 1,007 | 1,087 | 1,174 | 1,268 | 1,370 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 380 | 410 | 443 | 478 | 516 | 557 |
| margin % | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 |
| less depreciation | (26) | (28) | (30) | (33) | (36) | (38) |
| EBIT | 353 | 382 | 412 | 445 | 481 | 519 |
| less tax on EBIT | (87) | (94) | (102) | (110) | (119) | (128) |
| NOPAT | 266 | 287 | 310 | 335 | 362 | 391 |
| add depreciation | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 36 | 38 |
| less capex | (17) | (18) | (24) | (30) | (38) | (46) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 297 | 317 | 338 | 360 | 383 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 282 | 271 | 260 | 250 | 240 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 831, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 353 | 382 | 412 | 445 | 481 | 519 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (66) | (66) | (66) | (66) | (66) | |
| Profit before tax | 315 | 346 | 379 | 414 | 453 | |
| Profit after tax | 129 | 237 | 260 | 285 | 312 | 341 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 79 | 326 | 593 | 881 | 1,191 | 1,524 |
| Working capital | (4,470) | (4,470) | (4,470) | (4,470) | (4,470) | (4,470) |
| Net block and other assets | 11,490 | 11,480 | 11,473 | 11,471 | 11,473 | 11,480 |
| Debt | 831 | 831 | 831 | 831 | 831 | 831 |
| Equity | 1,348 | 1,585 | 1,846 | 2,131 | 2,443 | 2,783 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 265 | 291 | 318 | 347 | 379 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (24) | (30) | (38) | (46) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 247 | 267 | 288 | 310 | 333 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 247 | 267 | 288 | 310 | 333 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 40.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹719 | 46.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.