Models
ANAND RATHI WEALTH LTDANANDRATHICapital Markets
₹701per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹701implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 23.7×
Against CMP ₹2,210.00−68.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹540₹1,024
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,354₹2,255
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,351 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,066 |
| Enterprise value | 11,417 |
| less net debt | 224 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,641 |
| ÷ 16.60 crore shares | ₹701 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 724 | 779 | 844 | 924 | 1,024 |
| 10.50% | 667 | 713 | 766 | 830 | 909 |
| 11.00% | 619 | 657 | 701 | 754 | 817 |
| 11.50% | 576 | 609 | 646 | 690 | 741 |
| 12.00% | 540 | 567 | 599 | 636 | 679 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,210.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 539 · 697 · 900 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.39 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 549 | 724 | 939 | 1,149 | 1,407 | 1,724 | 2,112 | 2,587 | 3,169 |
| growth % | 31.4 | 32.0 | 29.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 239 | 304 | 400 | 481 | 590 | 722 | 885 | 1,084 | 1,328 |
| margin % | 43.5 | 41.9 | 42.6 | 41.9 | 41.9 | 41.9 | 41.9 | 41.9 | 41.9 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (19) | (25) | (34) | (42) | (52) | (63) | (78) | (95) |
| EBIT | 222 | 284 | 375 | 447 | 547 | 671 | 822 | 1,006 | 1,233 |
| less tax on EBIT | (116) | (142) | (174) | (213) | (261) | (319) | |||
| NOPAT | 331 | 406 | 497 | 609 | 746 | 913 | |||
| add depreciation | 17 | 19 | 25 | 34 | 42 | 52 | 63 | 78 | 95 |
| less capex | (17) | 0 | (36) | (13) | (17) | (31) | (51) | (78) | (114) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (12) | (14) | (18) | (22) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 67 | 278 | 208 | — | 421 | 506 | 607 | 728 | 873 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 400 | 433 | 468 | 505 | 546 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 17, dividends at 27.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 447 | 547 | 671 | 822 | 1,006 | 1,233 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 546 | 669 | 820 | 1,005 | 1,231 | |
| Profit after tax | 396 | 405 | 496 | 608 | 745 | 912 |
| Dividends | (108) | (110) | (135) | (166) | (203) | (249) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 241 | 551 | 920 | 1,361 | 1,884 | 2,507 |
| Working capital | 42 | 52 | 64 | 78 | 96 | 117 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,045 | 1,020 | 999 | 987 | 987 | 1,006 |
| Debt | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Equity | 1,012 | 1,306 | 1,667 | 2,108 | 2,650 | 3,313 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 437 | 536 | 657 | 805 | 986 | |
| Investing (capex) | (17) | (31) | (51) | (78) | (114) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (110) | (135) | (166) | (203) | (249) | |
| Net change in cash | 310 | 370 | 440 | 524 | 623 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 420 | 505 | 606 | 727 | 872 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 41.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹701 | (68.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.