Models
ANANT RAJ LIMITEDANANTRAJRealty
₹278per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹278implied FY26 P/E 16.8× · EV/EBITDA 14.8×
Against CMP ₹597.10−53.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹212₹408
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹403₹744
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,729 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,969 |
| Enterprise value | 9,698 |
| less net debt | 293 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,991 |
| ÷ 35.99 crore shares | ₹278 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 287 | 309 | 335 | 368 | 408 |
| 10.50% | 264 | 282 | 304 | 330 | 362 |
| 11.00% | 244 | 260 | 278 | 299 | 324 |
| 11.50% | 227 | 240 | 255 | 273 | 294 |
| 12.00% | 212 | 224 | 236 | 251 | 269 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹597.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 214 · 272 · 346 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 957 | 1,483 | 2,060 | 2,512 | 3,064 | 3,738 | 4,561 | 5,564 | 6,788 |
| growth % | 107.2 | 55.0 | 38.9 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| EBITDA | 197 | 334 | 492 | 656 | 800 | 976 | 1,190 | 1,452 | 1,772 |
| margin % | 20.6 | 22.5 | 23.9 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (18) | (30) | (49) | (58) | (71) | (87) | (106) | (129) |
| EBIT | 181 | 316 | 461 | 607 | 742 | 905 | 1,104 | 1,346 | 1,643 |
| less tax on EBIT | (100) | (122) | (148) | (181) | (221) | (269) | |||
| NOPAT | 507 | 620 | 756 | 923 | 1,126 | 1,373 | |||
| add depreciation | 17 | 18 | 30 | 49 | 58 | 71 | 87 | 106 | 129 |
| less capex | (12) | (41) | (50) | (142) | (175) | (181) | (182) | (174) | (155) |
| less working-capital build | — | (262) | (320) | (390) | (476) | (580) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (19) | (17) | 47 | — | 242 | 327 | 438 | 581 | 767 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 229 | 279 | 337 | 403 | 480 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 606, dividends at 4.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 607 | 742 | 905 | 1,104 | 1,346 | 1,643 |
| Interest at 2.3% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 728 | 891 | 1,090 | 1,333 | 1,629 | |
| Profit after tax | 555 | 608 | 745 | 911 | 1,114 | 1,362 |
| Dividends | (25) | (27) | (34) | (41) | (50) | (61) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 899 | 1,102 | 1,384 | 1,768 | 2,288 | 2,982 |
| Working capital | 1,190 | 1,452 | 1,772 | 2,162 | 2,637 | 3,218 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,779 | 4,895 | 5,005 | 5,101 | 5,169 | 5,195 |
| Debt | 606 | 606 | 606 | 606 | 606 | 606 |
| Equity | 5,819 | 6,400 | 7,111 | 7,981 | 9,045 | 10,345 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 405 | 496 | 608 | 744 | 910 | |
| Investing (capex) | (175) | (181) | (182) | (174) | (155) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (27) | (34) | (41) | (50) | (61) | |
| Net change in cash | 203 | 282 | 385 | 520 | 694 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 230 | 315 | 426 | 570 | 756 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22% | 26.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹278 | (53.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.