Models
ANGEL ONE LIMITEDANGELONECapital Markets
₹175per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹175implied FY26 P/E 3.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹305.00−42.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies11.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹138₹248
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹209₹360
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,602 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,226 |
| Enterprise value | 15,828 |
| less net debt | 162 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 15,990 |
| ÷ 91.35 crore shares | ₹175 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 181 | 193 | 207 | 225 | 248 |
| 10.50% | 168 | 178 | 190 | 204 | 222 |
| 11.00% | 156 | 165 | 175 | 187 | 201 |
| 11.50% | 147 | 154 | 163 | 172 | 184 |
| 12.00% | 138 | 145 | 152 | 160 | 170 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹305.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 150 · 175 · 205 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,002 | 4,272 | 5,238 | 5,137 | 5,034 | 4,933 | 4,835 | 4,738 | 4,643 |
| growth % | 32.9 | 42.3 | 22.6 | (1.9) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,292 | 1,692 | 1,981 | 1,818 | 1,782 | 1,746 | 1,711 | 1,677 | 1,644 |
| margin % | 43.0 | 39.6 | 37.8 | 35.4 | 35.4 | 35.4 | 35.4 | 35.4 | 35.4 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (50) | (103) | (125) | (121) | (118) | (116) | (114) | (111) |
| EBIT | 1,262 | 1,642 | 1,877 | 1,693 | 1,661 | 1,628 | 1,595 | 1,563 | 1,532 |
| less tax on EBIT | (474) | (465) | (456) | (447) | (438) | (429) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,219 | 1,196 | 1,172 | 1,149 | 1,126 | 1,103 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 50 | 103 | 125 | 121 | 118 | 116 | 114 | 111 |
| less capex | (33) | (180) | (150) | (50) | (50) | (73) | (94) | (114) | (134) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 770 | (510) | (2,010) | — | 1,267 | 1,218 | 1,171 | 1,125 | 1,081 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,202 | 1,042 | 902 | 781 | 676 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 48.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,693 | 1,661 | 1,628 | 1,595 | 1,563 | 1,532 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,661 | 1,628 | 1,595 | 1,563 | 1,532 | |
| Profit after tax | 915 | 1,196 | 1,172 | 1,149 | 1,126 | 1,103 |
| Dividends | (444) | (580) | (568) | (557) | (546) | (535) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 162 | 849 | 1,498 | 2,112 | 2,691 | 3,237 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 23,741 | 23,671 | 23,625 | 23,603 | 23,603 | 23,626 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 6,149 | 6,765 | 7,369 | 7,960 | 8,540 | 9,108 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,317 | 1,291 | 1,265 | 1,239 | 1,215 | |
| Investing (capex) | (50) | (73) | (94) | (114) | (134) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (580) | (568) | (557) | (546) | (535) | |
| Net change in cash | 686 | 650 | 614 | 579 | 546 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,267 | 1,218 | 1,171 | 1,125 | 1,081 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 35.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹175 | (42.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.