Models
ANSAL HOUSING LIMITEDBSE 507828Realty
₹11per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹11implied FY26 P/E 2.0× · EV/EBITDA (23.9)×
Against CMP ₹5.00+116.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹0₹32
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5₹11
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 108 |
| PV of terminal value | 252 |
| Enterprise value | 360 |
| less net debt | (285) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 75 |
| ÷ 6.96 crore shares | ₹11 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 12 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 32 |
| 10.50% | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 25 |
| 11.00% | 5 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 |
| 11.50% | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| 12.00% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 11 · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 7% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 250 | 465 | 445 | 341 | 324 | 308 | 293 | 278 | 264 |
| growth % | 4.5 | 85.8 | (4.4) | (23.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | (27) | 74 | 79 | (15) | (14) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) |
| margin % | (10.7) | 16.0 | 17.7 | (4.4) | (4.4) | (4.4) | (4.4) | (4.4) | (4.4) |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | (29) | 73 | 77 | (16) | (15) | (14) | (14) | (13) | (12) |
| less tax on EBIT | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| NOPAT | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | 41 | 39 | 37 | 36 | 34 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 127 | 65 | 132 | — | 31 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 29 | 25 | 21 | 18 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 293, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (16) | (15) | (14) | (14) | (13) | (12) |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| Profit before tax | (39) | (38) | (38) | (37) | (36) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (29) | (29) | (28) | (28) | (27) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 22 | 33 | 42 | 50 | 57 |
| Working capital | 829 | 787 | 748 | 710 | 675 | 641 |
| Net block and other assets | 471 | 470 | 470 | 470 | 470 | 470 |
| Debt | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 | 293 |
| Equity | 100 | 71 | 42 | 14 | (14) | (41) |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -4.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹11 | 116.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.