Models
ANTELOPUS SELAN ENRGY LTDANTELOPUSOil
₹268per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹268implied FY26 P/E 7.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.9×
Against CMP ₹1,140.20−76.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31109%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹183₹437
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹357₹1,218
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (81) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,016 |
| Enterprise value | 935 |
| less net debt | 6 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 941 |
| ÷ 3.52 crore shares | ₹268 |
109% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 279 | 307 | 342 | 384 | 437 |
| 10.50% | 249 | 273 | 301 | 335 | 377 |
| 11.00% | 224 | 244 | 268 | 295 | 329 |
| 11.50% | 202 | 219 | 239 | 262 | 290 |
| 12.00% | 183 | 198 | 215 | 234 | 257 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,140.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 188 · 264 · 355 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 118 | 166 | 258 | 279 | 301 | 325 | 351 | 379 | 410 |
| growth % | 52.6 | 40.4 | 55.8 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 32 | 39 | 89 | 159 | 171 | 185 | 200 | 216 | 233 |
| margin % | 26.7 | 23.3 | 34.3 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 56.9 | 56.9 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (3) | (4) | (47) | (51) | (55) | (60) | (65) | (70) |
| EBIT | 29 | 35 | 84 | 111 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 151 | 163 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (41) | |||
| NOPAT | 83 | 90 | 97 | 105 | 114 | 123 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 51 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 |
| less capex | (5) | (12) | (7) | (219) | (236) | (208) | (174) | (133) | (84) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 65 | 60 | 119 | — | (103) | (64) | (18) | 35 | 98 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (98) | (55) | (14) | 25 | 61 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 111 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 151 | 163 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 120 | 130 | 140 | 151 | 163 | |
| Profit after tax | 90 | 90 | 97 | 105 | 114 | 123 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (97) | (161) | (179) | (144) | (46) |
| Working capital | 100 | 108 | 116 | 126 | 136 | 147 |
| Net block and other assets | 718 | 903 | 1,056 | 1,170 | 1,238 | 1,252 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 655 | 746 | 843 | 948 | 1,062 | 1,184 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 133 | 144 | 156 | 168 | 181 | |
| Investing (capex) | (236) | (208) | (174) | (133) | (84) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (103) | (64) | (18) | 35 | 98 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (103) | (64) | (18) | 35 | 98 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 56.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹268 | (76.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.