Models
ANTONY WASTE HDG CELL LTDAWHCLOther Utilities
₹642per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹642implied FY26 P/E 31.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.4×
Against CMP ₹367.80+74.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(6.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹478₹969
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹361₹616
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 571 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,567 |
| Enterprise value | 2,138 |
| less net debt | (316) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,822 |
| ÷ 2.84 crore shares | ₹642 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 666 | 721 | 787 | 868 | 969 |
| 10.50% | 608 | 654 | 708 | 773 | 852 |
| 11.00% | 559 | 597 | 642 | 695 | 759 |
| 11.50% | 516 | 548 | 586 | 630 | 682 |
| 12.00% | 478 | 506 | 538 | 575 | 619 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹367.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 439 · 633 · 858 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 856 | 873 | 934 | 1,053 | 1,190 | 1,345 | 1,520 | 1,717 | 1,940 |
| growth % | 32.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 147 | 178 | 219 | 205 | 232 | 262 | 296 | 335 | 378 |
| margin % | 17.2 | 20.4 | 23.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| less depreciation | (39) | (53) | (70) | (86) | (96) | (109) | (123) | (139) | (157) |
| EBIT | 108 | 125 | 149 | 120 | 136 | 153 | 173 | 196 | 221 |
| less tax on EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |||
| NOPAT | 122 | 139 | 157 | 177 | 200 | 226 | |||
| add depreciation | 39 | 53 | 70 | 86 | 96 | 109 | 123 | 139 | 157 |
| less capex | (268) | (157) | (202) | (60) | (68) | (90) | (117) | (150) | (189) |
| less working-capital build | — | (27) | (30) | (34) | (39) | (44) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (178) | (17) | (15) | — | 140 | 145 | 149 | 151 | 151 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 133 | 124 | 115 | 105 | 94 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 426, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 120 | 136 | 153 | 173 | 196 | 221 |
| Interest at 13.5% on debt | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) | |
| Profit before tax | 78 | 96 | 116 | 138 | 164 | |
| Profit after tax | 75 | 80 | 98 | 118 | 141 | 167 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 110 | 192 | 278 | 368 | 460 | 552 |
| Working capital | 206 | 233 | 263 | 297 | 336 | 380 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,423 | 1,394 | 1,375 | 1,370 | 1,380 | 1,412 |
| Debt | 426 | 426 | 426 | 426 | 426 | 426 |
| Equity | 915 | 995 | 1,093 | 1,211 | 1,353 | 1,520 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 150 | 177 | 207 | 242 | 281 | |
| Investing (capex) | (68) | (90) | (117) | (150) | (189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 82 | 86 | 90 | 92 | 92 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 82 | 86 | 90 | 92 | 92 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 19.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹642 | 74.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.