Models
APAR INDUSTRIES LTD.APARINDSElectrical Equipment
₹6,124per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹6,124implied FY26 P/E 20.8× · EV/EBITDA 13.4×
Against CMP ₹17,499.00−65.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹4,562₹9,249
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6,801₹18,465
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,467 |
| PV of terminal value | 21,303 |
| Enterprise value | 24,770 |
| less net debt | (172) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 24,598 |
| ÷ 4.02 crore shares | ₹6,124 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 6,342 | 6,871 | 7,505 | 8,280 | 9,249 |
| 10.50% | 5,793 | 6,232 | 6,751 | 7,373 | 8,134 |
| 11.00% | 5,323 | 5,692 | 6,124 | 6,633 | 7,245 |
| 11.50% | 4,916 | 5,231 | 5,594 | 6,018 | 6,518 |
| 12.00% | 4,562 | 4,833 | 5,142 | 5,498 | 5,914 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹17,499.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 4,593 · 6,017 · 7,790 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,352 | 16,153 | 18,581 | 22,902 | 28,284 | 34,931 | 43,140 | 53,277 | 65,798 |
| growth % | 54.0 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 23.3 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,227 | 1,522 | 1,547 | 1,843 | 2,263 | 2,794 | 3,451 | 4,262 | 5,264 |
| margin % | 8.5 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| less depreciation | (104) | (116) | (132) | (161) | (198) | (245) | (302) | (373) | (461) |
| EBIT | 1,123 | 1,407 | 1,415 | 1,682 | 2,065 | 2,550 | 3,149 | 3,889 | 4,803 |
| less tax on EBIT | (427) | (524) | (648) | (800) | (988) | (1,220) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,255 | 1,540 | 1,902 | 2,349 | 2,901 | 3,583 | |||
| add depreciation | 104 | 116 | 132 | 161 | 198 | 245 | 302 | 373 | 461 |
| less capex | (248) | (331) | (510) | (737) | (905) | (912) | (871) | (762) | (553) |
| less working-capital build | — | (619) | (764) | (944) | (1,166) | (1,440) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 451 | (614) | 781 | — | 214 | 471 | 836 | 1,347 | 2,051 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 203 | 403 | 644 | 935 | 1,283 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 841, dividends at 21% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,682 | 2,065 | 2,550 | 3,149 | 3,889 | 4,803 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (67) | (67) | (67) | (67) | (67) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,997 | 2,483 | 3,082 | 3,822 | 4,736 | |
| Profit after tax | 977 | 1,490 | 1,852 | 2,299 | 2,851 | 3,533 |
| Dividends | (205) | (313) | (389) | (483) | (599) | (742) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 669 | 520 | 551 | 854 | 1,552 | 2,811 |
| Working capital | 2,629 | 3,248 | 4,012 | 4,956 | 6,122 | 7,562 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,414 | 11,121 | 11,788 | 12,357 | 12,746 | 12,838 |
| Debt | 841 | 841 | 841 | 841 | 841 | 841 |
| Equity | 5,393 | 6,571 | 8,034 | 9,850 | 12,103 | 14,894 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,069 | 1,332 | 1,657 | 2,058 | 2,554 | |
| Investing (capex) | (905) | (912) | (871) | (762) | (553) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (313) | (389) | (483) | (599) | (742) | |
| Net change in cash | (149) | 32 | 303 | 698 | 1,259 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 164 | 421 | 786 | 1,296 | 2,001 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23.5% | 8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹6,124 | (65.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.