Models
APCOTEX INDUSTRIES LIMITEAPCOTEXINDIndustrial Products
₹249per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹249implied FY26 P/E 8.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹603.70−58.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹193₹361
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹310₹712
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 373 |
| PV of terminal value | 980 |
| Enterprise value | 1,353 |
| less net debt | (61) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,292 |
| ÷ 5.18 crore shares | ₹249 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 258 | 276 | 299 | 327 | 361 |
| 10.50% | 238 | 253 | 272 | 294 | 321 |
| 11.00% | 221 | 234 | 249 | 267 | 289 |
| 11.50% | 206 | 217 | 230 | 245 | 263 |
| 12.00% | 193 | 203 | 214 | 226 | 241 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹603.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 200 · 247 · 304 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,080 | 1,125 | 1,392 | 1,441 | 1,492 | 1,544 | 1,598 | 1,654 | 1,712 |
| growth % | 12.9 | 4.1 | 23.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 159 | 114 | 125 | 178 | 185 | 191 | 198 | 205 | 212 |
| margin % | 14.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (32) | (42) | (50) | (51) | (53) | (54) | (56) | (58) |
| EBIT | 143 | 82 | 83 | 129 | 134 | 139 | 144 | 149 | 154 |
| less tax on EBIT | (34) | (35) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (41) | |||
| NOPAT | 95 | 99 | 102 | 106 | 110 | 114 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 32 | 42 | 50 | 51 | 53 | 54 | 56 | 58 |
| less capex | (187) | (28) | (50) | (44) | (46) | (52) | (57) | (63) | (70) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (66) | 12 | 35 | — | 97 | 96 | 96 | 95 | 94 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 92 | 82 | 74 | 66 | 59 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 93, dividends at 35.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 129 | 134 | 139 | 144 | 149 | 154 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 127 | 131 | 136 | 141 | 147 | |
| Profit after tax | 101 | 93 | 97 | 100 | 104 | 108 |
| Dividends | (36) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (37) | (39) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | 90 | 146 | 201 | 253 | 303 |
| Working capital | 188 | 195 | 202 | 209 | 216 | 224 |
| Net block and other assets | 766 | 762 | 761 | 764 | 771 | 783 |
| Debt | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Equity | 621 | 681 | 743 | 808 | 875 | 944 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 138 | 143 | 148 | 153 | 159 | |
| Investing (capex) | (46) | (52) | (57) | (63) | (70) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (37) | (39) | |
| Net change in cash | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 91 | 91 | 90 | 90 | 89 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 12.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹249 | (58.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.