Models
APL APOLLO TUBES LTDAPLAPOLLOIndustrial Products
₹944per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹944implied FY26 P/E 21.3× · EV/EBITDA 14.4×
Against CMP ₹2,153.50−56.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹721₹1,388
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,653₹2,301
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,127 |
| PV of terminal value | 20,886 |
| Enterprise value | 26,013 |
| less net debt | 192 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 26,205 |
| ÷ 27.77 crore shares | ₹944 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 976 | 1,051 | 1,140 | 1,250 | 1,388 |
| 10.50% | 897 | 959 | 1,033 | 1,121 | 1,229 |
| 11.00% | 830 | 882 | 944 | 1,016 | 1,103 |
| 11.50% | 772 | 817 | 868 | 928 | 999 |
| 12.00% | 721 | 760 | 803 | 854 | 913 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,153.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 760 · 938 · 1,156 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.53 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,166 | 18,119 | 20,690 | 23,079 | 25,733 | 28,692 | 31,992 | 35,671 | 39,773 |
| growth % | 23.8 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,022 | 1,192 | 1,199 | 1,802 | 2,007 | 2,238 | 2,495 | 2,782 | 3,102 |
| margin % | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| less depreciation | (138) | (176) | (201) | (231) | (257) | (287) | (320) | (357) | (398) |
| EBIT | 883 | 1,016 | 998 | 1,571 | 1,750 | 1,951 | 2,175 | 2,426 | 2,705 |
| less tax on EBIT | (357) | (397) | (443) | (494) | (551) | (614) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,214 | 1,353 | 1,508 | 1,682 | 1,875 | 2,091 | |||
| add depreciation | 138 | 176 | 201 | 231 | 257 | 287 | 320 | 357 | 398 |
| less capex | (862) | (695) | (723) | (696) | (772) | (732) | (672) | (589) | (477) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (172) | 417 | 491 | — | 838 | 1,063 | 1,330 | 1,643 | 2,011 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 795 | 909 | 1,024 | 1,140 | 1,257 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 452, dividends at 13.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,571 | 1,750 | 1,951 | 2,175 | 2,426 | 2,705 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,714 | 1,915 | 2,139 | 2,389 | 2,668 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,203 | 1,325 | 1,480 | 1,654 | 1,847 | 2,063 |
| Dividends | (160) | (176) | (197) | (220) | (246) | (274) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 644 | 1,278 | 2,117 | 3,198 | 4,568 | 6,277 |
| Working capital | (575) | (575) | (575) | (575) | (575) | (575) |
| Net block and other assets | 8,765 | 9,279 | 9,724 | 10,076 | 10,308 | 10,387 |
| Debt | 452 | 452 | 452 | 452 | 452 | 452 |
| Equity | 5,297 | 6,445 | 7,728 | 9,162 | 10,763 | 12,552 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,582 | 1,767 | 1,974 | 2,204 | 2,460 | |
| Investing (capex) | (772) | (732) | (672) | (589) | (477) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (176) | (197) | (220) | (246) | (274) | |
| Net change in cash | 634 | 839 | 1,082 | 1,370 | 1,709 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 810 | 1,035 | 1,302 | 1,615 | 1,983 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 7.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹944 | (56.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.