Models
APOLLO HOSPITALS ENTER. LAPOLLOHOSPHealthcare Services
₹2,832per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,832implied FY26 P/E 19.5× · EV/EBITDA 12.2×
Against CMP ₹8,836.00−67.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,057₹4,381
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹6,697₹9,050
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7,813 |
| PV of terminal value | 37,760 |
| Enterprise value | 45,573 |
| less net debt | (4,847) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 40,726 |
| ÷ 14.38 crore shares | ₹2,832 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,942 | 3,204 | 3,518 | 3,902 | 4,381 |
| 10.50% | 2,669 | 2,887 | 3,144 | 3,452 | 3,829 |
| 11.00% | 2,436 | 2,619 | 2,832 | 3,084 | 3,387 |
| 11.50% | 2,234 | 2,389 | 2,569 | 2,779 | 3,027 |
| 12.00% | 2,057 | 2,191 | 2,344 | 2,521 | 2,727 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹8,836.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,111 · 2,804 · 3,676 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,612 | 19,059 | 21,794 | 25,229 | 29,265 | 33,947 | 39,379 | 45,680 | 52,988 |
| growth % | 13.3 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,050 | 2,393 | 3,022 | 3,750 | 4,360 | 5,058 | 5,867 | 6,806 | 7,895 |
| margin % | 12.3 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| less depreciation | (615) | (687) | (758) | (876) | (1,024) | (1,188) | (1,378) | (1,599) | (1,855) |
| EBIT | 1,434 | 1,706 | 2,264 | 2,874 | 3,336 | 3,870 | 4,489 | 5,207 | 6,041 |
| less tax on EBIT | (724) | (841) | (975) | (1,131) | (1,312) | (1,522) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,150 | 2,495 | 2,895 | 3,358 | 3,895 | 4,518 | |||
| add depreciation | 615 | 687 | 758 | 876 | 1,024 | 1,188 | 1,378 | 1,599 | 1,855 |
| less capex | (1,129) | (1,137) | (1,713) | (1,962) | (2,283) | (2,342) | (2,363) | (2,330) | (2,226) |
| less working-capital build | — | (283) | (328) | (380) | (441) | (512) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 249 | 784 | 424 | — | 955 | 1,413 | 1,993 | 2,723 | 3,636 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 906 | 1,208 | 1,536 | 1,890 | 2,273 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,659, dividends at 15.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,874 | 3,336 | 3,870 | 4,489 | 5,207 | 6,041 |
| Interest at 8.2% on debt | (464) | (464) | (464) | (464) | (464) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,872 | 3,406 | 4,025 | 4,743 | 5,577 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,942 | 2,148 | 2,548 | 3,011 | 3,548 | 4,171 |
| Dividends | (293) | (324) | (385) | (455) | (536) | (630) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 811 | 1,094 | 1,775 | 2,967 | 4,807 | 7,466 |
| Working capital | 1,776 | 2,059 | 2,387 | 2,767 | 3,208 | 3,720 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,609 | 20,868 | 22,022 | 23,006 | 23,737 | 24,108 |
| Debt | 5,659 | 5,659 | 5,659 | 5,659 | 5,659 | 5,659 |
| Equity | 9,975 | 11,799 | 13,962 | 16,518 | 19,530 | 23,072 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,890 | 3,408 | 4,009 | 4,706 | 5,514 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,283) | (2,342) | (2,363) | (2,330) | (2,226) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (324) | (385) | (455) | (536) | (630) | |
| Net change in cash | 283 | 681 | 1,192 | 1,840 | 2,659 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 607 | 1,066 | 1,646 | 2,376 | 3,289 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 14.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,832 | (67.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.