Models
APOLLO TYRES LTDAPOLLOTYREAuto Components
₹286per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹286implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹418.10−31.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹219₹418
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹365₹541
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,568 |
| PV of terminal value | 14,172 |
| Enterprise value | 19,740 |
| less net debt | (1,602) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 18,138 |
| ÷ 63.51 crore shares | ₹286 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 296 | 318 | 344 | 377 | 418 |
| 10.50% | 272 | 291 | 312 | 339 | 371 |
| 11.00% | 252 | 267 | 286 | 307 | 333 |
| 11.50% | 234 | 248 | 263 | 281 | 302 |
| 12.00% | 219 | 231 | 244 | 259 | 276 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹418.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 170 · 283 · 400 |
| Draws below the CMP | 93% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,568 | 25,378 | 26,123 | 28,471 | 31,033 | 33,826 | 36,870 | 40,189 | 43,806 |
| growth % | 17.3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 3,336 | 4,370 | 3,403 | 3,110 | 3,383 | 3,687 | 4,019 | 4,381 | 4,775 |
| margin % | 13.6 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (1,419) | (1,478) | (1,498) | (1,543) | (1,676) | (1,827) | (1,991) | (2,170) | (2,365) |
| EBIT | 1,917 | 2,892 | 1,904 | 1,567 | 1,707 | 1,860 | 2,028 | 2,210 | 2,409 |
| less tax on EBIT | 75 | 82 | 89 | 97 | 106 | 116 | |||
| NOPAT | 1,642 | 1,789 | 1,950 | 2,125 | 2,316 | 2,525 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,419 | 1,478 | 1,498 | 1,543 | 1,676 | 1,827 | 1,991 | 2,170 | 2,365 |
| less capex | (775) | (730) | (769) | (1,403) | (1,521) | (1,791) | (2,098) | (2,445) | (2,839) |
| less working-capital build | — | (487) | (531) | (578) | (630) | (687) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,360 | 2,709 | 1,055 | — | 1,457 | 1,455 | 1,440 | 1,411 | 1,365 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,383 | 1,244 | 1,109 | 979 | 853 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,632, dividends at 39.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,567 | 1,707 | 1,860 | 2,028 | 2,210 | 2,409 |
| Interest at 13% on debt | (342) | (342) | (342) | (342) | (342) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,365 | 1,518 | 1,686 | 1,868 | 2,067 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,372 | 1,430 | 1,591 | 1,767 | 1,958 | 2,166 |
| Dividends | (539) | (561) | (624) | (693) | (768) | (849) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,029 | 1,567 | 2,039 | 2,428 | 2,713 | 2,870 |
| Working capital | 5,421 | 5,908 | 6,439 | 7,017 | 7,648 | 8,335 |
| Net block and other assets | 22,789 | 22,634 | 22,599 | 22,706 | 22,981 | 23,454 |
| Debt | 2,632 | 2,632 | 2,632 | 2,632 | 2,632 | 2,632 |
| Equity | 16,715 | 17,585 | 18,552 | 19,626 | 20,817 | 22,134 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,619 | 2,887 | 3,179 | 3,498 | 3,845 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,521) | (1,791) | (2,098) | (2,445) | (2,839) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (561) | (624) | (693) | (768) | (849) | |
| Net change in cash | 538 | 472 | 389 | 285 | 157 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,099 | 1,096 | 1,081 | 1,052 | 1,006 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹286 | (31.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.