Models
ARCHEAN CHEMICAL IND LTDACIChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹21per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹21implied FY26 P/E 2.6× · EV/EBITDA 2.8×
Against CMP ₹470.90−95.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31143%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(2)₹66
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹477₹726
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (293) |
| PV of terminal value | 972 |
| Enterprise value | 679 |
| less net debt | (425) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 254 |
| ÷ 12.35 crore shares | ₹21 |
143% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 23 | 31 | 41 | 52 | 66 |
| 10.50% | 15 | 22 | 30 | 39 | 50 |
| 11.00% | 9 | 14 | 21 | 28 | 37 |
| 11.50% | 3 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 27 |
| 12.00% | (2) | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹470.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (5) · 20 · 48 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,441 | 1,330 | 1,041 | 1,081 | 1,124 | 1,169 | 1,216 | 1,265 | 1,315 |
| growth % | — | (7.7) | (21.7) | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | 634 | 463 | 274 | 239 | 248 | 258 | 269 | 279 | 291 |
| margin % | 44.0 | 34.8 | 26.3 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 |
| less depreciation | (69) | (70) | (79) | (93) | (97) | (101) | (105) | (109) | (113) |
| EBIT | 565 | 392 | 195 | 146 | 152 | 158 | 164 | 171 | 178 |
| less tax on EBIT | (41) | (43) | (45) | (46) | (48) | (50) | |||
| NOPAT | 105 | 109 | 113 | 118 | 122 | 127 | |||
| add depreciation | 69 | 70 | 79 | 93 | 97 | 101 | 105 | 109 | 113 |
| less capex | (100) | (131) | (264) | (382) | (398) | (341) | (278) | (210) | (136) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 396 | 248 | (87) | — | (202) | (137) | (66) | 11 | 94 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (192) | (117) | (51) | 7 | 59 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 466, dividends at 35.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 146 | 152 | 158 | 164 | 171 | 178 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | |
| Profit before tax | 114 | 121 | 127 | 133 | 140 | |
| Profit after tax | 105 | 82 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 101 |
| Dividends | (37) | (29) | (30) | (32) | (34) | (35) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 41 | (216) | (410) | (535) | (584) | (553) |
| Working capital | 237 | 246 | 256 | 267 | 277 | 288 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,387 | 2,688 | 2,928 | 3,101 | 3,202 | 3,225 |
| Debt | 466 | 466 | 466 | 466 | 466 | 466 |
| Equity | 1,933 | 1,986 | 2,042 | 2,101 | 2,163 | 2,229 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 169 | 177 | 185 | 194 | 203 | |
| Investing (capex) | (398) | (341) | (278) | (210) | (136) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (30) | (32) | (34) | (35) | |
| Net change in cash | (258) | (194) | (125) | (50) | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (229) | (163) | (93) | (16) | 67 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 22.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹21 | (95.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.