Models
ARIES AGRO LTD.ARIESFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹303per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹303implied FY26 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹475.25−36.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹209₹492
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹285₹525
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2 |
| PV of terminal value | 418 |
| Enterprise value | 420 |
| less net debt | (26) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 394 |
| ÷ 1.30 crore shares | ₹303 |
99% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 315 | 348 | 386 | 433 | 492 |
| 10.50% | 283 | 309 | 341 | 378 | 424 |
| 11.00% | 254 | 277 | 303 | 334 | 371 |
| 11.50% | 230 | 249 | 271 | 297 | 327 |
| 12.00% | 209 | 225 | 244 | 266 | 291 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹475.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 134 · 298 · 448 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 472 | 516 | 622 | 740 | 881 | 1,048 | 1,247 | 1,484 | 1,766 |
| growth % | 7.3 | 9.4 | 20.5 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 48 | 55 | 67 | 76 | 91 | 108 | 128 | 153 | 182 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (19) | (22) | (26) |
| EBIT | 40 | 48 | 58 | 65 | 77 | 92 | 110 | 131 | 155 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (23) | (27) | (33) | (39) | (46) | |||
| NOPAT | 46 | 54 | 65 | 77 | 92 | 109 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 |
| less capex | (16) | (30) | (33) | (49) | (58) | (57) | (52) | (45) | (32) |
| less working-capital build | — | (32) | (38) | (45) | (54) | (64) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 39 | 46 | 73 | — | (22) | (14) | (2) | 16 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (21) | (12) | (1) | 11 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 51, dividends at 3.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 65 | 77 | 92 | 110 | 131 | 155 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 73 | 88 | 106 | 127 | 151 | |
| Profit after tax | 43 | 52 | 62 | 74 | 89 | 106 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 25 | (2) | (21) | (28) | (18) | 15 |
| Working capital | 167 | 199 | 237 | 282 | 335 | 399 |
| Net block and other assets | 447 | 492 | 533 | 566 | 589 | 594 |
| Debt | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Equity | 338 | 388 | 448 | 519 | 605 | 708 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 33 | 40 | 48 | 58 | 69 | |
| Investing (capex) | (58) | (57) | (52) | (45) | (32) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (27) | (19) | (7) | 10 | 34 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (25) | (17) | (4) | 13 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹303 | (36.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.