Models
ARIHANT CAPITAL MKTS LTDARIHANTCAPCapital Markets
₹51per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹51implied FY26 P/E 13.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹79.44−35.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies5.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹41₹71
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹57₹120
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 158 |
| PV of terminal value | 374 |
| Enterprise value | 532 |
| less net debt | 29 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 561 |
| ÷ 10.96 crore shares | ₹51 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 53 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 71 |
| 10.50% | 49 | 52 | 55 | 59 | 64 |
| 11.00% | 46 | 48 | 51 | 54 | 58 |
| 11.50% | 43 | 45 | 48 | 50 | 54 |
| 12.00% | 41 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 50 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹79.44; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 44 · 51 · 60 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 138 | 235 | 247 | 206 | 196 | 186 | 177 | 168 | 160 |
| growth % | (18.9) | 71.0 | 5.2 | (16.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 50 | 105 | 100 | 66 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 |
| margin % | 36.2 | 44.7 | 40.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 48 | 103 | 97 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | |||
| NOPAT | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | 0 | (3) | (17) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | (33) | 15 | — | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 42 | 36 | 31 | 26 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 47.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 |
| Dividends | (5) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 29 | 52 | 74 | 95 | 114 | 133 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,069 | 1,070 | 1,070 | 1,071 | 1,071 | 1,072 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 441 | 465 | 487 | 508 | 528 | 548 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 48 | 46 | 44 | 41 | 39 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 32.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹51 | (35.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.