Models
ARIHANT FOUN & HOU LTDARIHANTCONSTRUCTION
₹-231per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(231)implied FY26 P/E (3.7)× · EV/EBITDA 1.6×
Against CMP ₹885.00−126.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31111%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(282)₹(128)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹715₹1,225
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (18) |
| PV of terminal value | 175 |
| Enterprise value | 157 |
| less net debt | (388) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (231) |
| ÷ 1.00 crore shares | ₹(231) |
111% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (225) | (207) | (186) | (160) | (128) |
| 10.50% | (243) | (228) | (211) | (190) | (165) |
| 11.00% | (258) | (246) | (231) | (214) | (194) |
| 11.50% | (271) | (261) | (248) | (234) | (218) |
| 12.00% | (282) | (273) | (263) | (251) | (238) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹885.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (1,001) · (233) · 270 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.84 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 64 | 124 | 206 | 420 | 546 | 710 | 923 | 1,200 | 1,561 |
| growth % | (22.4) | 93.1 | 66.4 | 103.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 13 | 26 | 64 | 97 | 127 | 165 | 214 | 279 | 362 |
| margin % | 21.0 | 20.8 | 31.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | 13 | 26 | 64 | 96 | 125 | 163 | 211 | 275 | 357 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (36) | (46) | (60) | (78) | (102) | |||
| NOPAT | 69 | 89 | 116 | 151 | 197 | 256 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (2) | (17) | (22) | (22) | (21) | (16) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (83) | (108) | (141) | (183) | (238) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 147 | 14 | (85) | — | (15) | (12) | (7) | 2 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (14) | (10) | (6) | 1 | 11 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 398, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 96 | 125 | 163 | 211 | 275 | 357 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | |
| Profit before tax | 87 | 125 | 174 | 237 | 320 | |
| Profit after tax | 59 | 62 | 89 | 124 | 170 | 228 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | (31) | (71) | (105) | (130) | (140) |
| Working capital | 277 | 361 | 469 | 609 | 792 | 1,030 |
| Net block and other assets | 730 | 751 | 771 | 789 | 801 | 802 |
| Debt | 398 | 398 | 398 | 398 | 398 | 398 |
| Equity | 371 | 434 | 523 | 647 | 817 | 1,045 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (19) | (17) | (14) | (10) | (5) | |
| Investing (capex) | (22) | (22) | (21) | (16) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (42) | (39) | (34) | (25) | (10) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (42) | (39) | (34) | (25) | (10) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 23.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(231) | (126.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.