Models
ARIHANT SUPERSTRUCT LTDARIHANTSUPRealty
₹-163per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(163)implied FY26 P/E (24.2)× · EV/EBITDA 1.2×
Against CMP ₹217.00−175.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(170)₹(147)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹189₹465
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 43 |
| PV of terminal value | 112 |
| Enterprise value | 154 |
| less net debt | (858) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (704) |
| ÷ 4.33 crore shares | ₹(163) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (162) | (159) | (156) | (152) | (147) |
| 10.50% | (164) | (162) | (160) | (157) | (153) |
| 11.00% | (167) | (165) | (163) | (160) | (157) |
| 11.50% | (169) | (167) | (165) | (163) | (161) |
| 12.00% | (170) | (169) | (168) | (166) | (164) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹217.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (282) · (163) · (63) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.89 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.44 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 389 | 510 | 499 | 551 | 609 | 673 | 743 | 821 | 908 |
| growth % | 17.7 | 31.0 | (2.2) | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 78 | 113 | 104 | 127 | 140 | 155 | 171 | 189 | 209 |
| margin % | 19.9 | 22.2 | 20.9 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | 76 | 111 | 102 | 124 | 137 | 151 | 167 | 185 | 204 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (34) | (37) | (41) | (45) | (50) | |||
| NOPAT | 93 | 103 | 114 | 126 | 139 | 154 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | 0 | (1) | (76) | 0 | 0 | (1) | (2) | (4) | (5) |
| less working-capital build | — | (95) | (105) | (117) | (129) | (142) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | (148) | (254) | — | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 873, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 124 | 137 | 151 | 167 | 185 | 204 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (73) | (73) | (73) | (73) | (73) | |
| Profit before tax | 64 | 78 | 94 | 112 | 131 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 48 | 59 | 71 | 84 | 99 |
| Dividends | (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | (30) | (74) | (118) | (163) | (207) |
| Working capital | 909 | 1,005 | 1,110 | 1,227 | 1,356 | 1,498 |
| Net block and other assets | 846 | 843 | 841 | 839 | 839 | 840 |
| Debt | 873 | 873 | 873 | 873 | 873 | 873 |
| Equity | 450 | 498 | 557 | 628 | 712 | 810 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (44) | (43) | (42) | (41) | (39) | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (1) | (2) | (4) | (5) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (45) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (44) | (44) | (44) | (44) | (45) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 23% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(163) | (175.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.