Models
ARISINFRA SOLUTIONS LTDARISOther Construction Materials
₹96per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹96implied FY26 P/E 11.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.5×
Against CMP ₹125.35−23.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹74₹140
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹82₹178
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 132 |
| PV of terminal value | 608 |
| Enterprise value | 740 |
| less net debt | 47 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 787 |
| ÷ 8.18 crore shares | ₹96 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 99 | 107 | 116 | 127 | 140 |
| 10.50% | 92 | 98 | 105 | 114 | 124 |
| 11.00% | 85 | 90 | 96 | 103 | 112 |
| 11.50% | 79 | 84 | 89 | 95 | 102 |
| 12.00% | 74 | 78 | 82 | 87 | 93 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹125.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 25 · 95 · 145 |
| Draws below the CMP | 77% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 768 | 1,067 | 1,388 | 1,804 | 2,345 | 3,049 | 3,963 |
| growth % | — | 39.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 43 | 98 | 128 | 166 | 216 | 280 | 365 |
| margin % | 5.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (4) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) |
| EBIT | 39 | 94 | 122 | 159 | 206 | 268 | 349 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (28) | (37) | (48) | (63) | (81) | |
| NOPAT | 72 | 94 | 122 | 158 | 206 | 268 | |
| add depreciation | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| less capex | (0) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (72) | (94) | (122) | (158) | (206) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (22) | — | 19 | 25 | 33 | 44 | 59 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 18 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 55, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 94 | 122 | 159 | 206 | 268 | 349 |
| Interest at 14.2% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 114 | 151 | 199 | 261 | 341 | |
| Profit after tax | 53 | 88 | 116 | 152 | 200 | 262 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 101 | 114 | 133 | 161 | 199 | 251 |
| Working capital | 241 | 313 | 406 | 528 | 686 | 892 |
| Net block and other assets | 699 | 702 | 705 | 708 | 712 | 715 |
| Debt | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Equity | 751 | 839 | 955 | 1,107 | 1,307 | 1,568 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 21 | 29 | 40 | 54 | 72 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 19 | 27 | 38 | 53 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 13 | 19 | 27 | 38 | 53 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 9.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹96 | (23.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.