Models
ARROW GREENTECH LIMITEDARROWGREENIndustrial Products
₹348per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹348implied FY26 P/E 8.2× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹805.00−56.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹280₹483
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹342₹829
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 155 |
| PV of terminal value | 343 |
| Enterprise value | 498 |
| less net debt | 27 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 525 |
| ÷ 1.51 crore shares | ₹348 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 358 | 381 | 408 | 441 | 483 |
| 10.50% | 334 | 353 | 375 | 402 | 434 |
| 11.00% | 313 | 329 | 348 | 370 | 396 |
| 11.50% | 296 | 309 | 325 | 343 | 364 |
| 12.00% | 280 | 291 | 305 | 320 | 338 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹805.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 301 · 348 · 405 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 109 | 149 | 243 | 201 | 190 | 181 | 172 | 163 | 155 |
| growth % | 223.0 | 36.5 | 63.9 | (17.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 24 | 46 | 88 | 65 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 | 50 |
| margin % | 21.6 | 31.2 | 36.3 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (8) | (7) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) |
| EBIT | 17 | 38 | 81 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 44 |
| less tax on EBIT | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) | |||
| NOPAT | 41 | 39 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 32 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| less capex | (4) | (10) | (7) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 41 | 113 | — | 45 | 42 | 39 | 36 | 33 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 43 | 36 | 30 | 25 | 21 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 12.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 44 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 44 | |
| Profit after tax | 47 | 39 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| Dividends | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 27 | 67 | 104 | 139 | 170 | 199 |
| Working capital | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 44 | 42 |
| Net block and other assets | 175 | 172 | 170 | 169 | 169 | 170 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 236 | 271 | 303 | 334 | 364 | 391 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 49 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 40 | 37 | 34 | 32 | 29 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 45 | 42 | 39 | 36 | 33 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 32.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹348 | (56.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.