Artificial Electronics Intelli — valuation model

Artificial Electronics IntelliBSE 526443Electrical Equipment

₹161per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹161implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 11.0×

Against CMP ₹79.78+102.3%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹116₹252

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹80₹195

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	117
PV of terminal value	425
Enterprise value	543
less net debt	(96)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	447
÷ 2.77 crore shares	₹161

78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	168	183	202	224	252
10.50%	152	165	180	198	220
11.00%	138	149	161	176	194
11.50%	126	135	146	158	173
12.00%	116	124	133	143	155

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹79.78; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	127 · 160 · 200
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.71
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.65
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.09

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	150	162	175	189	204	221
growth %	—	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
EBITDA	49	53	57	62	67	72
margin %	32.8	32.8	32.8	32.8	32.8	32.8
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
EBIT	48	52	56	60	65	70
less tax on EBIT	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)	(18)
NOPAT	36	39	42	45	49	53
add depreciation	1	1	2	2	2	2
less capex	(9)	(10)	(8)	(7)	(5)	(2)
less working-capital build	—	(8)	(9)	(10)	(10)	(11)
Free cash flow to firm	—	22	26	31	35	41
Discount factor		0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value		21	22	24	25	26

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 105, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	48	52	56	60	65	70
Interest at 8% on debt		(8)	(8)	(8)	(8)	(8)
Profit before tax		43	47	52	57	62
Profit after tax	37	32	35	39	42	46
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	8	24	44	69	98	132
Working capital	103	111	120	130	140	151
Net block and other assets	156	164	171	176	179	179
Debt	105	105	105	105	105	105
Equity	122	154	190	229	271	317
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		26	28	31	34	37
Investing (capex)		(10)	(8)	(7)	(5)	(2)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		16	20	24	29	35
Free cash flow to equity		16	20	24	29	35

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	8%	32.8%	11.00%	5%	₹161	102.3%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.