Models
ARVIND LIMITEDARVINDTextiles & Apparels
₹172per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹172implied FY26 P/E 10.8× · EV/EBITDA 5.9×
Against CMP ₹576.80−70.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹117₹281
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹278₹607
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,005 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,844 |
| Enterprise value | 5,850 |
| less net debt | (1,353) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,497 |
| ÷ 26.21 crore shares | ₹172 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 179 | 198 | 220 | 247 | 281 |
| 10.50% | 160 | 175 | 193 | 215 | 242 |
| 11.00% | 144 | 157 | 172 | 189 | 211 |
| 11.50% | 129 | 140 | 153 | 168 | 185 |
| 12.00% | 117 | 126 | 137 | 150 | 164 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹576.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 102 · 169 · 241 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,382 | 7,738 | 8,329 | 9,303 | 10,373 | 11,566 | 12,896 | 14,379 | 16,033 |
| growth % | 4.3 | (7.7) | 7.6 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 859 | 848 | 853 | 987 | 1,100 | 1,226 | 1,367 | 1,524 | 1,699 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| less depreciation | (253) | (266) | (259) | (290) | (322) | (359) | (400) | (446) | (497) |
| EBIT | 606 | 582 | 595 | 697 | 778 | 867 | 967 | 1,078 | 1,202 |
| less tax on EBIT | (199) | (223) | (248) | (277) | (308) | (344) | |||
| NOPAT | 498 | 555 | 619 | 691 | 770 | 859 | |||
| add depreciation | 253 | 266 | 259 | 290 | 322 | 359 | 400 | 446 | 497 |
| less capex | (204) | (278) | (535) | (509) | (571) | (585) | (595) | (599) | (596) |
| less working-capital build | — | (189) | (211) | (235) | (262) | (293) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 462 | 418 | 228 | — | 117 | 182 | 260 | 354 | 466 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 111 | 156 | 201 | 246 | 292 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,441, dividends at 25.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 697 | 778 | 867 | 967 | 1,078 | 1,202 |
| Interest at 11.7% on debt | (169) | (169) | (169) | (169) | (169) | |
| Profit before tax | 609 | 699 | 799 | 910 | 1,034 | |
| Profit after tax | 414 | 435 | 499 | 570 | 650 | 738 |
| Dividends | (104) | (109) | (125) | (143) | (163) | (185) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 88 | (24) | (88) | (91) | (20) | 141 |
| Working capital | 1,644 | 1,833 | 2,044 | 2,280 | 2,542 | 2,835 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,104 | 7,353 | 7,580 | 7,774 | 7,927 | 8,027 |
| Debt | 1,441 | 1,441 | 1,441 | 1,441 | 1,441 | 1,441 |
| Equity | 4,141 | 4,467 | 4,841 | 5,268 | 5,755 | 6,308 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 567 | 646 | 735 | 833 | 943 | |
| Investing (capex) | (571) | (585) | (595) | (599) | (596) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (109) | (125) | (143) | (163) | (185) | |
| Net change in cash | (112) | (64) | (3) | 71 | 161 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3) | 62 | 140 | 234 | 346 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹172 | (70.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.