Models
ARVIND FASHIONS LIMITEDARVINDFASNRetailing
₹253per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹253implied FY26 P/E 28.2× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹444.00−43.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹197₹363
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹366₹579
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,371 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,494 |
| Enterprise value | 3,865 |
| less net debt | (481) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,384 |
| ÷ 13.39 crore shares | ₹253 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 261 | 280 | 302 | 329 | 363 |
| 10.50% | 242 | 257 | 275 | 297 | 324 |
| 11.00% | 225 | 238 | 253 | 271 | 292 |
| 11.50% | 210 | 221 | 234 | 248 | 266 |
| 12.00% | 197 | 206 | 217 | 230 | 244 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹444.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 152 · 249 · 350 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,421 | 4,259 | 4,620 | 5,266 | 6,003 | 6,844 | 7,802 | 8,894 | 10,140 |
| growth % | 44.7 | (3.7) | 8.5 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 453 | 504 | 602 | 681 | 774 | 883 | 1,006 | 1,147 | 1,308 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| less depreciation | (239) | (230) | (256) | (290) | (330) | (376) | (429) | (489) | (558) |
| EBIT | 214 | 274 | 346 | 392 | 444 | 506 | 577 | 658 | 750 |
| less tax on EBIT | (115) | (131) | (149) | (170) | (194) | (221) | |||
| NOPAT | 276 | 314 | 358 | 408 | 465 | 530 | |||
| add depreciation | 239 | 230 | 256 | 290 | 330 | 376 | 429 | 489 | 558 |
| less capex | (63) | (82) | (96) | (109) | (126) | (221) | (339) | (487) | (669) |
| less working-capital build | — | (105) | (120) | (137) | (156) | (178) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 254 | 352 | 434 | — | 412 | 393 | 360 | 311 | 240 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 391 | 336 | 278 | 216 | 150 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 531, dividends at 58.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 392 | 444 | 506 | 577 | 658 | 750 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | |
| Profit before tax | 402 | 464 | 535 | 616 | 708 | |
| Profit after tax | 123 | 284 | 328 | 378 | 435 | 500 |
| Dividends | (71) | (165) | (191) | (220) | (253) | (291) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 51 | 268 | 440 | 551 | 579 | 498 |
| Working capital | 755 | 860 | 980 | 1,117 | 1,273 | 1,451 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,410 | 3,206 | 3,051 | 2,961 | 2,959 | 3,070 |
| Debt | 531 | 531 | 531 | 531 | 531 | 531 |
| Equity | 1,161 | 1,279 | 1,416 | 1,574 | 1,756 | 1,964 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 508 | 584 | 670 | 768 | 879 | |
| Investing (capex) | (126) | (221) | (339) | (487) | (669) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (165) | (191) | (220) | (253) | (291) | |
| Net change in cash | 217 | 172 | 111 | 28 | (81) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 382 | 363 | 330 | 281 | 210 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 12.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹253 | (43.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.