Models
ARVIND SMARTSPACES LTDARVSMARTRealty
₹426per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹426implied FY26 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 15.8×
Against CMP ₹602.90−29.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹313₹651
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹487₹708
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 658 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,746 |
| Enterprise value | 2,404 |
| less net debt | (451) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,953 |
| ÷ 4.59 crore shares | ₹426 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 443 | 480 | 526 | 582 | 651 |
| 10.50% | 403 | 434 | 471 | 516 | 571 |
| 11.00% | 368 | 395 | 426 | 462 | 506 |
| 11.50% | 339 | 361 | 387 | 418 | 453 |
| 12.00% | 313 | 332 | 354 | 380 | 410 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹602.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 365 · 426 · 505 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.91 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 256 | 341 | 713 | 564 | 536 | 509 | 484 | 459 | 436 |
| growth % | (0.4) | 33.3 | 109.1 | (20.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 49 | 111 | 168 | 152 | 144 | 137 | 130 | 124 | 117 |
| margin % | 19.1 | 32.7 | 23.6 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 46 | 107 | 163 | 146 | 138 | 131 | 125 | 119 | 113 |
| less tax on EBIT | (34) | (32) | (31) | (29) | (28) | (26) | |||
| NOPAT | 111 | 106 | 100 | 95 | 91 | 86 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (11) | (16) | (16) | (47) | (44) | (33) | (23) | (14) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 102 | 97 | 92 | 87 | 83 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (112) | 15 | (99) | — | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 168 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 160 | 145 | 130 | 117 | 105 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 577, dividends at 28.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 146 | 138 | 131 | 125 | 119 | 113 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | |
| Profit before tax | 97 | 90 | 83 | 77 | 71 | |
| Profit after tax | 96 | 74 | 69 | 64 | 59 | 54 |
| Dividends | (28) | (21) | (20) | (18) | (17) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 126 | 242 | 360 | 480 | 600 | 721 |
| Working capital | 2,036 | 1,934 | 1,837 | 1,745 | 1,658 | 1,575 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,432 | 1,470 | 1,498 | 1,516 | 1,525 | 1,526 |
| Debt | 577 | 577 | 577 | 577 | 577 | 577 |
| Equity | 896 | 949 | 998 | 1,044 | 1,086 | 1,125 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 182 | 171 | 161 | 151 | 142 | |
| Investing (capex) | (44) | (33) | (23) | (14) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (21) | (20) | (18) | (17) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | 116 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 137 | 138 | 138 | 137 | 136 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 26.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹426 | (29.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.