Models
ASAHI INDIA GLASS LIMITEDASAHIINDIAAuto Components
₹175per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹175implied FY26 P/E 10.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹982.00−82.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹113₹300
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹775₹1,074
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 880 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,405 |
| Enterprise value | 6,284 |
| less net debt | (1,813) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,471 |
| ÷ 25.49 crore shares | ₹175 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 184 | 205 | 231 | 262 | 300 |
| 10.50% | 162 | 180 | 201 | 225 | 256 |
| 11.00% | 143 | 158 | 175 | 196 | 220 |
| 11.50% | 127 | 140 | 154 | 171 | 191 |
| 12.00% | 113 | 124 | 136 | 150 | 167 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹982.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 113 · 173 · 243 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,019 | 4,357 | 4,594 | 4,990 | 5,414 | 5,874 | 6,374 | 6,915 | 7,503 |
| growth % | 26.6 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 795 | 738 | 798 | 906 | 985 | 1,069 | 1,160 | 1,259 | 1,366 |
| margin % | 19.8 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| less depreciation | (160) | (177) | (192) | (285) | (309) | (335) | (363) | (394) | (428) |
| EBIT | 635 | 561 | 606 | 622 | 677 | 734 | 797 | 864 | 938 |
| less tax on EBIT | (154) | (168) | (182) | (198) | (214) | (233) | |||
| NOPAT | 467 | 509 | 552 | 599 | 650 | 705 | |||
| add depreciation | 160 | 177 | 192 | 285 | 309 | 335 | 363 | 394 | 428 |
| less capex | (325) | (901) | (1,268) | (666) | (725) | (691) | (645) | (586) | (513) |
| less working-capital build | — | (72) | (78) | (84) | (92) | (99) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 93 | (240) | (545) | — | 20 | 118 | 233 | 366 | 520 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 19 | 101 | 180 | 254 | 325 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,059, dividends at 14.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 622 | 677 | 734 | 797 | 864 | 938 |
| Interest at 8.9% on debt | (183) | (183) | (183) | (183) | (183) | |
| Profit before tax | 494 | 551 | 613 | 681 | 755 | |
| Profit after tax | 345 | 371 | 414 | 461 | 512 | 568 |
| Dividends | (49) | (52) | (58) | (65) | (72) | (80) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 245 | 76 | (2) | 28 | 184 | 487 |
| Working capital | 844 | 915 | 993 | 1,077 | 1,169 | 1,268 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,683 | 7,100 | 7,456 | 7,738 | 7,930 | 8,016 |
| Debt | 2,059 | 2,059 | 2,059 | 2,059 | 2,059 | 2,059 |
| Equity | 3,934 | 4,253 | 4,609 | 5,005 | 5,445 | 5,933 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 608 | 671 | 740 | 815 | 896 | |
| Investing (capex) | (725) | (691) | (645) | (586) | (513) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (52) | (58) | (65) | (72) | (80) | |
| Net change in cash | (170) | (78) | 30 | 156 | 303 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (117) | (19) | 95 | 228 | 383 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 18.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹175 | (82.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.