Models
ASAHI SONGWON COLOR LTDASAHISONGChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹149per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹149implied FY26 P/E 5.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹364.95−59.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3163%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹99₹249
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹180₹414
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 117 |
| PV of terminal value | 198 |
| Enterprise value | 315 |
| less net debt | (139) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 176 |
| ÷ 1.18 crore shares | ₹149 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 157 | 174 | 194 | 219 | 249 |
| 10.50% | 139 | 153 | 170 | 189 | 214 |
| 11.00% | 124 | 136 | 149 | 166 | 185 |
| 11.50% | 111 | 121 | 132 | 146 | 161 |
| 12.00% | 99 | 108 | 117 | 129 | 142 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹364.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 109 · 150 · 197 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 505 | 426 | 562 | 535 | 509 | 483 | 459 | 436 | 414 |
| growth % | 21.5 | (15.5) | 31.9 | (4.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 5 | 44 | 56 | 50 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 |
| margin % | 1.0 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (16) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) |
| EBIT | (10) | 28 | 37 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| less capex | (31) | (53) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (9) | (12) | (15) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2 | (46) | 52 | — | 40 | 34 | 28 | 24 | 19 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 38 | 29 | 22 | 16 | 12 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 141, dividends at 9.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Dividends | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 33 | 58 | 77 | 92 | 103 |
| Working capital | 129 | 123 | 117 | 111 | 105 | 100 |
| Net block and other assets | 472 | 459 | 451 | 447 | 446 | 449 |
| Debt | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 |
| Equity | 298 | 309 | 320 | 330 | 338 | 347 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 37 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 29 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (9) | (12) | (15) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 31 | 25 | 20 | 15 | 10 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 26 | 21 | 16 | 11 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 9.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹149 | (59.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.